Ray Dalio - Decision Systems

Ray Dalio - Decision Systems is a skill for Claude Code, Codex from OpenLabor/openlabor. It costs 50 tokens per session (1,955 once invoked), scanned A, original, MIT.

A decision framework based on Ray Dalio's Principles, using probabilities, possible outcomes, expected value, and worst-case analysis to compare choices.

In plain words
What is it for?
Use it to evaluate business or investment decisions, compare scenarios, stress-test plans, and assess risk-adjusted outcomes.
Why use it?
It makes uncertainty and downside risk explicit, helping replace vague intuition with a structured comparison of options.

Skill for Claude CodeCodex

Written for no agent in particular: nothing here depends on one.

Good fit Use it to evaluate business or investment decisions, compare scenarios, stress-test plans, and assess risk-adjusted outcomes.

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Install with agentmods
npx agentmods add skills/openlabor/openlabor/dalio-decision-systems
Install

Getting it into your agent

One page per mod, every tool's command on it. A separate URL per tool would split the same page into five that compete with each other.

Any agent
npx skills add OpenLabor/openlabor --skill dalio-decision-systems
Clone the repo
git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/OpenLabor/openlabor

Made for: Claude Code, Codex.

Wrote this? Show the measurements

A badge with what this costs and how it scanned, read live from this page, so it follows the numbers instead of freezing them. Markdown for a README, HTML for a documentation site or a project page.

agentmods badge for Ray Dalio - Decision Systems

README.md
[![agentmods](https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/openlabor/openlabor/dalio-decision-systems.svg)](https://agentmods.dev/skills/openlabor/openlabor/dalio-decision-systems)
Your own site
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/openlabor/openlabor/dalio-decision-systems"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/openlabor/openlabor/dalio-decision-systems.svg" alt="Measured on agentmods" height="20"></a>
Per session 50 Skills are progressive disclosure: only the name and description are preloaded; the body loads when the skill is used.
When invoked 1,955 The whole file, excluding the scripts and references it only reads on demand.
Security scan A 0 findings. A grade says what 26 rules found in the file — not that it is safe.
Origin original No closer match found in the catalogue.
Token cost

What it costs to keep this loaded

Counted locally with the o200k_base tokenizer, which is exact for GPT models; Claude uses its own tokenizer and its counts differ. Treat this as one consistent yardstick across the catalogue rather than a bill. Prices are per million input tokens.

ModelPer sessionOnce invoked
Fable 5.1 $0.00050 $0.01955
Opus 5 $0.00025 $0.00978
Sonnet 5 $0.00010 $0.00391
Haiku 4.5 $0.00005 $0.00196

Measured 7d ago against content hash 1d2a3255e991, method: parsed. Prices are Anthropic first-party input rates as of 2026-09-07, from the pricing page.

Security

Grade A, and why

Ray Dalio - Decision Systems scanned grade A with 0 findings against 26 rules in 11 categories — prompt injection, anti-refusal, data exfiltration, privilege escalation, supply chain, agent snooping, system-prompt leakage, SSRF and excessive agency — measured 7d ago.

A static scan of the body, not an audit. Every finding is printed with the line that produced it so you can judge whether it matters here. A mod is markdown that instructs an agent; that is exactly why what it instructs is worth reading.

Nothing flagged

None of the 26 patterns this scan looks for appear in this file: no shell pipes, no recursive deletes, no credential paths, no hidden text, no instruction-override or anti-refusal phrasing, no agent-config snooping. That is not a guarantee, it is the absence of the things that are checkable.

skills/dalio-decision-systems/SKILL.md · 225 lines

How it starts

The opening of the file, as written. The whole thing — 225 lines — stays where its author put it; the contents beside it link to each section on GitHub.

Ray Dalio - Decision Systems

Dalio's systematic, probability-based decision-making frameworks apply rigorous thinking to both investment and business decisions. The core premise: good decisions come from good process, not good intentions.

Routes when user asks about: decision frameworks, expected value, probability weighted decisions, scenario planning, stress testing, worst case analysis, decision systems, how to make better decisions, risk-adjusted returns, systematic thinking, decision trees


Phase 1: Context Gathering

Before applying any framework, understand the situation:

  1. Ask the user: "What decision are you trying to make? Tell me about the options you're weighing and what's at stake."
  2. Read any relevant context — financial data, business metrics, timeline, alternatives being considered.

Phase 2: Diagnostic Questions

Ask these questions ONE AT A TIME. Wait for each answer before asking the next. Adapt based on answers — skip questions that have already been answered.

  1. "What are the 2-3 most likely outcomes if you go ahead with this decision? For each, what's the rough probability and the financial or strategic impact?"
  2. "What's the absolute worst case — not the mildly bad case, but the scenario where everything goes wrong simultaneously? Would you survive it?"
  3. "What are the 1-2 things you don't know that would most change your decision if you did know them?"
  4. "Who has the strongest track record making decisions like this one? Have you consulted them — and do you agree or disagree with their view?"
  5. "If this decision turns out to be wrong, how quickly would you know, and how hard would it be to reverse?"

Maximum 5 questions. Stop early if you have enough to work with.


Phase 3: Analysis

Apply Dalio's decision frameworks to the user's specific situation:

Expected Value Calculation

"I have found that if you make decisions based on expected value rather than on the probability of being right, you will do much better." — Dalio

Read the full file on GitHub · 225 lines

Changes

What this file has done since we first saw it

Hashed on every crawl. A supply-chain change to an agent config is a question of when, not whether, so the history is kept rather than the latest state alone.

  1. 7d ago First seen · 225 lines · 50 tokens per session scan A 1d2a3255e991

Subscribe to this mod's changes

Ray Dalio - Decision Systems is a skill published in the GitHub repository OpenLabor/openlabor (4 stars, last pushed 6d ago), licensed MIT. It adds 50 tokens to every session and 1,955 once invoked, about $0.0003 per session on Opus 5. A static security scan graded it A with 0 findings. No closer match exists in the catalogue, so it is treated as the original; first seen 2026-08-31.