policyengine-calibration-diagnostics

policyengine-calibration-diagnostics is a skill for Claude Code from PolicyEngine/policyengine-claude. It costs 182 tokens per session (2,719 once invoked), scanned A, original, MIT.

A diagnostic guide for explaining why PolicyEngine microsimulation results differ from expected values. Microsimulation estimates policy effects across many representative households; calibration adjusts the underlying data to match known totals.

In plain words
What is it for?
Use it when investigating an unexpected policy result, reviewing microsimulation changes, checking calibration targets, or understanding volatile state-level estimates.
Why use it?
It ranks likely causes of a mismatch using calibration diagnostics instead of relying only on intuition. It connects differences to policy programs, data assumptions, and measured calibration errors.

Skill for Claude Code

Written for Claude Code: shipped in a Claude Code plugin. Also seen: positional $N argument.

Part of the analysis-tools plugin — 11 skills shipped together , and of complete

Good fit Use it when investigating an unexpected policy result, reviewing microsimulation changes, checking calibration targets, or understanding volatile state-level estimates.

Compare 6 skills from other repositories ↓
Install with agentmods
npx agentmods add skills/policyengine/policyengine-claude/policyengine-calibration-diagnostics
Install

Getting it into your agent

One page per mod, every tool's command on it. A separate URL per tool would split the same page into five that compete with each other.

Any agent
npx skills add PolicyEngine/policyengine-claude --skill policyengine-calibration-diagnostics
Clone the repo
git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-claude

Made for: Claude Code.

Or install analysis-tools, the plugin that ships this one along with the rest of its 11 skills.

Wrote this? Show the measurements

A badge with what this costs and how it scanned, read live from this page, so it follows the numbers instead of freezing them. Markdown for a README, HTML for a documentation site or a project page.

agentmods badge for policyengine-calibration-diagnostics

README.md
[![agentmods](https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/policyengine/policyengine-claude/policyengine-calibration-diagnostics/github.svg)](https://agentmods.dev/skills/policyengine/policyengine-claude/policyengine-calibration-diagnostics)
Your own site
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/policyengine/policyengine-claude/policyengine-calibration-diagnostics"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/policyengine/policyengine-claude/policyengine-calibration-diagnostics/github.svg" alt="Measured on agentmods" height="20"></a>

Or the 80×15 button, for a site that already has a row of RSS and ATOM ones. Only the verdict fits; the numbers stay here.

agentmods 80×15 button for policyengine-calibration-diagnostics

Your own site · 80×15
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/policyengine/policyengine-claude/policyengine-calibration-diagnostics"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/policyengine/policyengine-claude/policyengine-calibration-diagnostics.svg" alt="Reviewed on agentmods" width="80" height="20"></a>
Per session 182 Skills are progressive disclosure: only the name and description are preloaded; the body loads when the skill is used.
When invoked 2,719 The whole file, excluding the scripts and references it only reads on demand.
Security scan A 0 findings. A grade says what 26 rules found in the file — not that it is safe. Third-party audits
  • NVIDIA SkillSpector pass 7 Sept 2026
How audits are shown
Origin original No closer match found in the catalogue.
Token cost

What it costs to keep this loaded

Counted locally with the o200k_base tokenizer, which is exact for GPT models; Claude uses its own tokenizer and its counts differ. Treat this as one consistent yardstick across the catalogue rather than a bill. Prices are per million input tokens.

ModelPer sessionOnce invoked
Fable 5.1 $0.00182 $0.02719
Opus 5.5 $0.00073 $0.01088
Sonnet 5.5 $0.00036 $0.00544
Haiku 4.5 $0.00018 $0.00272

Measured 2d ago against content hash 59d31923b12d, method: parsed. Prices are Anthropic first-party input rates as of 2026-10-07, from the pricing page.

Security

Grade A, and why

policyengine-calibration-diagnostics scanned grade A with 0 findings against 26 rules in 11 categories — prompt injection, anti-refusal, data exfiltration, privilege escalation, supply chain, agent snooping, system-prompt leakage, SSRF and excessive agency — measured 2d ago.

A static scan of the body, not an audit. Every finding is printed with the line that produced it so you can judge whether it matters here. A mod is markdown that instructs an agent; that is exactly why what it instructs is worth reading.

Nothing flagged

None of the 26 patterns this scan looks for appear in this file: no shell pipes, no recursive deletes, no credential paths, no hidden text, no instruction-override or anti-refusal phrasing, no agent-config snooping. That is not a guarantee, it is the absence of the things that are checkable.

skills/policyengine-calibration-diagnostics/SKILL.md · 178 lines

How it starts

The opening of the file, as written. The whole thing — 178 lines — stays where its author put it; the contents beside it link to each section on GitHub.

PolicyEngine calibration diagnostics

Converts tribal "I'd check the takeup rate first" knowledge into a structured sensitivity registry, and pairs it with the live per-target calibration API so hypotheses are ranked against real relative_error numbers rather than assumptions. When an /analyze-policy comparison returns INVESTIGATE, this skill supplies the ranked candidate causes.

The calibrated microdata is now a Microcosm build (see the policyengine-data skill for how targets, weights and opt-in L0 pruning work, and where the US default's households come from). Calibration targets live in the Microcosm build's target set — not in a hand-maintained loss file — and their fit is queryable per release from the dashboard API below.

When to use

  • Stage 5.6 / Stage 6 of /analyze-policy — invoked by the calibration-diagnostics agent.
  • Code review of microsim PRs where the headline number differs from priors.
  • Designing or auditing a Microcosm calibration target.
  • Debugging why a state-level run looks volatile.

Top-level architecture

PolicyEngine microsim results depend on three layers:

  1. Country model logic (policyengine-us, policyengine-uk, policyengine-canada) — formulas, parameters.
  2. Calibrated microdata (Microcosm) — survey weights + imputations matched to administrative targets.
  3. Behavioral assumptions (takeup rates, labor-supply elasticities) — usually parameters but easy to overlook.

A magnitude mismatch is almost always rooted in layer 2 or 3, not layer 1 (layer-1 mismatches show up as outright simulation errors, not magnitude drift).

Live calibration API (check this first)

Per-target fit for the current Microcosm release, no auth, reads the release from Hugging Face:

BASE = https://calibration-diagnostics.vercel.app/calibration/dashboard/api/microcosm
GET {BASE}/target-diagnostics?source=<source>     # every target for a source, with relative_error
GET {BASE}/target-investigation?target=<id>        # full investigation packet for one target
GET {BASE}/releases                                # release ids for pinning

Read the full file on GitHub · 178 lines

Changes

What this file has done since we first saw it

Hashed on every crawl. A supply-chain change to an agent config is a question of when, not whether, so the history is kept rather than the latest state alone.

  1. 2d ago Changed · +1 lines · -6 tokens per session 59d31923b12d
  2. 2mo ago First seen · 177 lines · 188 tokens per session scan A a55216268497

Subscribe to this mod's changes

policyengine-calibration-diagnostics is a skill published in the GitHub repository PolicyEngine/policyengine-claude (31 stars, last pushed yesterday), licensed MIT. It adds 182 tokens to every session and 2,719 once invoked, about $0.0007 per session on Opus 5.5. A static security scan graded it A with 0 findings. No closer match exists in the catalogue, so it is treated as the original; first seen 2026-08-30.

Related

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policyengine-calibration-diagnostics next to 6 skills from other repositories
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