soros-reflexivity

Soros Reflexivity

Use this skill to apply George Soros-style reflexivity: identify where participant beliefs and market prices reinforce each other, test whether the feedback loop is unstable, and structure asymmetric macro trades with explicit invalidation.

When To Use

Use this skill when the user asks for:

• Macro dislocation analysis
• Reflexive boom/bust dynamics
• Currency, rates, credit, equity index, or commodity regime shifts
• Crowded positioning and squeeze risk
• Asymmetric trade structuring

Trigger phrases include Soros, reflexivity, macro dislocation, feedback loop, boom bust, asymmetric, policy shift, and positioning.

Do Not Use When

• The opportunity has no identifiable feedback loop.
• The trade cannot be expressed with clear invalidation.
• Liquidity is too poor to exit.
• The user wants passive long-term ownership analysis.

Inputs Needed

• Market or macro theme
• Price trend, positioning, consensus narrative, and policy backdrop
• Key economic or liquidity data
• Catalyst path and time horizon
• Trade expression, stop level, and risk budget if available

Process

1. Define the prevailing belief and the underlying reality.
2. Identify the feedback loop between prices, fundamentals, behavior, and policy.
3. Decide whether the loop is self-reinforcing, self-correcting, or breaking.
4. Test asymmetry: downside if wrong vs upside if the reflexive process accelerates.
5. Start with a probe if uncertain, add only when the market confirms.
6. Define invalidation and exit before sizing up.

Output Format

# Soros Reflexivity View: [Theme]

## Verdict
Probe / Press / Hold / Exit / Pass

## Prevailing Bias

## Reflexive Loop

## Asymmetry

## Trade Expression

## Invalidation

## What Would Make The Thesis Accelerate

## Missing Data

Guardrails

• Do not call every trend reflexive.
• Do not size big before the market confirms.
• Do not hold after the thesis stops working.
• Do not ignore policy response.
• Do not confuse being contrarian with being right.