openportfolio-record

openportfolio-record is a skill for Claude Code, Codex from seonglae/openportfolio. It costs 71 tokens per session (652 once invoked), scanned A, original, Apache-2.0.

A skill for checking and maintaining the forecast record in an OpenPortfolio book. It measures forecast accuracy and calibration, lists past calls, and settles or cancels calls whose time period has ended.

In plain words
What is it for?
Use it to review Brier scores, calibration by probability range, forecasts past their time horizon, and the process of settling or voiding them.
Why use it?
Predictions are hard to evaluate if they are not checked against later outcomes. This makes it possible to see whether stated probabilities matched what actually happened.

Skill for Claude CodeCodex

Written for no agent in particular: nothing here depends on one.

Good fit Use it to review Brier scores, calibration by probability range, forecasts past their time horizon, and the process of settling or voiding them.

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Install with agentmods
npx agentmods add skills/seonglae/openportfolio/openportfolio-record
Install

Getting it into your agent

One page per mod, every tool's command on it. A separate URL per tool would split the same page into five that compete with each other.

Any agent
npx skills add seonglae/openportfolio --skill openportfolio-record
Clone the repo
git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/seonglae/openportfolio

Made for: Claude Code, Codex.

Wrote this? Show the measurements

A badge with what this costs and how it scanned, read live from this page, so it follows the numbers instead of freezing them. Markdown for a README, HTML for a documentation site or a project page.

agentmods badge for openportfolio-record

README.md
[![agentmods](https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/seonglae/openportfolio/openportfolio-record/github.svg)](https://agentmods.dev/skills/seonglae/openportfolio/openportfolio-record)
Your own site
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/seonglae/openportfolio/openportfolio-record"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/seonglae/openportfolio/openportfolio-record/github.svg" alt="Measured on agentmods" height="20"></a>

Or the 80×15 button, for a site that already has a row of RSS and ATOM ones. Only the verdict fits; the numbers stay here.

agentmods 80×15 button for openportfolio-record

Your own site · 80×15
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/seonglae/openportfolio/openportfolio-record"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/seonglae/openportfolio/openportfolio-record.svg" alt="Reviewed on agentmods" width="80" height="20"></a>
Per session 71 Skills are progressive disclosure: only the name and description are preloaded; the body loads when the skill is used.
When invoked 652 The whole file, excluding the scripts and references it only reads on demand.
Security scan A 0 findings. A grade says what 26 rules found in the file — not that it is safe.
Origin original No closer match found in the catalogue.
Token cost

What it costs to keep this loaded

Counted locally with the o200k_base tokenizer, which is exact for GPT models; Claude uses its own tokenizer and its counts differ. Treat this as one consistent yardstick across the catalogue rather than a bill. Prices are per million input tokens.

ModelPer sessionOnce invoked
Fable 5.1 $0.00071 $0.00652
Opus 5.5 $0.00028 $0.00261
Sonnet 5.5 $0.00014 $0.00130
Haiku 4.5 $0.00007 $0.00065

Measured yesterday against content hash 2598de639545, method: parsed. Prices are Anthropic first-party input rates as of 2026-10-07, from the pricing page.

Security

Grade A, and why

openportfolio-record scanned grade A with 0 findings against 26 rules in 11 categories — prompt injection, anti-refusal, data exfiltration, privilege escalation, supply chain, agent snooping, system-prompt leakage, SSRF and excessive agency — measured yesterday.

A static scan of the body, not an audit. Every finding is printed with the line that produced it so you can judge whether it matters here. A mod is markdown that instructs an agent; that is exactly why what it instructs is worth reading.

Nothing flagged

None of the 26 patterns this scan looks for appear in this file: no shell pipes, no recursive deletes, no credential paths, no hidden text, no instruction-override or anti-refusal phrasing, no agent-config snooping. That is not a guarantee, it is the absence of the things that are checkable.

skills/openportfolio-record/SKILL.md · 33 lines

How it starts

The opening of the file, as written. The whole thing — 33 lines — stays where its author put it; the contents beside it link to each section on GitHub.

Checking the record

Needs the openportfolio MCP server. See the openportfolio-book skill for setup.

Reading it

calibration returns the mean Brier score, the expected calibration error, and the reliability buckets behind them. Optional windowDays, author and buckets.

  • Brier is the mean of (probability - outcome)^2 with outcome 1 or 0. Lower is better.
  • 0.25 is what saying 50% to everything earns; beating it alone does not establish skill. Read paired baseline scores and their shared count. Open, void and legacy unaudited settlements are reported separately. No confidence interval is claimed because event dependence is unknown.
  • Read the buckets, not only the mean. Each bucket compares what was said with how often it happened. Observed below said at the top end is overconfidence, the usual failure. A bucket with three calls in it says very little, so report the count beside the rate.
  • Filter by author to inspect a forecaster. Means on different event sets are not a fair head-to-head comparison.

list_forecasts (optional status of open, resolved or void, author, limit) lists the calls themselves, newest first.

Settling what is due

due_forecasts lists open calls whose horizon has passed. requiresHistoricalEvidence false means no worker will settle the row.

  • A row with a supported resolutionTarget can be settled by the worker from historical evidence under the policy frozen at registration. A symbol alone is insufficient. For settle_forecast, observedValue requires evidence matching the assetId, symbol, assetClass, venue, currency and registered time policy, with a source. Never use a current price for an old horizon or widen the allowed age after seeing prices.
  • Legacy symbol-only calls and stored unsupported targets require a documented manual outcome and source note. Calls with a supported target cannot bypass it with a manual outcome. Both paths reject early settlement; do not pass outcome and observedValue together.
  • A row with a null symbol is prose and needs reading. Establish whether the criterion was met, then settle_forecast with an explicit outcome of true or false and a note saying how you know.
  • If the criterion became unresolvable (the event was cancelled or the wording turned out ambiguous), use void_forecast with a reason. A void drops out of the mean. Never settle a call you cannot establish: a guess scored as an outcome corrupts the record it is meant to test.

Read the full file on GitHub · 33 lines

Changes

What this file has done since we first saw it

Hashed on every crawl. A supply-chain change to an agent config is a question of when, not whether, so the history is kept rather than the latest state alone.

  1. yesterday Changed · +3 lines 2598de639545
  2. 16d ago First seen · 30 lines · 71 tokens per session scan A f35e553ee243

Subscribe to this mod's changes

openportfolio-record is a skill published in the GitHub repository seonglae/openportfolio (3 stars, last pushed 2d ago), licensed Apache-2.0. It adds 71 tokens to every session and 652 once invoked, about $0.0003 per session on Opus 5.5. A static security scan graded it A with 0 findings. No closer match exists in the catalogue, so it is treated as the original; first seen 2026-09-30.

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