uncertainty-mlp

uncertainty-mlp is a skill for Claude Code, Codex from SFETNI/Deep-Matter-Chem-Skills. It costs 6 tokens per session (13,215 once invoked), scanned B, original, MIT.

A set of methods for estimating when predictions from machine-learned models of atomic forces and energies may be unreliable. It compares model disagreements and structural similarity with known training data.

In plain words
What is it for?
Use it to set safety limits for molecular-dynamics simulations, guide active learning, detect unfamiliar structures, estimate confidence intervals, and decide when detailed calculations are needed.
Why use it?
These models can give incorrect results for unfamiliar structures without reporting an error. Uncertainty checks can flag risky predictions before they cause a misleading simulation.

Skill for Claude CodeCodex

Written for no agent in particular: nothing here depends on one.

Good fit Use it to set safety limits for molecular-dynamics simulations, guide active learning, detect unfamiliar structures, estimate confidence intervals, and decide when detailed calculations are needed.

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Install with agentmods
npx agentmods add skills/sfetni/deep-matter-chem-skills/uncertainty-mlp
Install

Getting it into your agent

One page per mod, every tool's command on it. A separate URL per tool would split the same page into five that compete with each other.

Any agent
npx skills add SFETNI/Deep-Matter-Chem-Skills --skill uncertainty-mlp
Clone the repo
git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/SFETNI/Deep-Matter-Chem-Skills

Made for: Claude Code, Codex.

Wrote this? Show the measurements

A badge with what this costs and how it scanned, read live from this page, so it follows the numbers instead of freezing them. Markdown for a README, HTML for a documentation site or a project page.

agentmods badge for uncertainty-mlp

README.md
[![agentmods](https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/sfetni/deep-matter-chem-skills/uncertainty-mlp/github.svg)](https://agentmods.dev/skills/sfetni/deep-matter-chem-skills/uncertainty-mlp)
Your own site
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/sfetni/deep-matter-chem-skills/uncertainty-mlp"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/sfetni/deep-matter-chem-skills/uncertainty-mlp/github.svg" alt="Measured on agentmods" height="20"></a>

Or the 80×15 button, for a site that already has a row of RSS and ATOM ones. Only the verdict fits; the numbers stay here.

agentmods 80×15 button for uncertainty-mlp

Your own site · 80×15
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/sfetni/deep-matter-chem-skills/uncertainty-mlp"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/sfetni/deep-matter-chem-skills/uncertainty-mlp.svg" alt="Reviewed on agentmods" width="80" height="20"></a>
Per session 6 Skills are progressive disclosure: only the name and description are preloaded; the body loads when the skill is used.
When invoked 13,215 The whole file, excluding the scripts and references it only reads on demand.
Security scan B 2 findings. A grade says what 26 rules found in the file — not that it is safe.
Origin original No closer match found in the catalogue.
Token cost

What it costs to keep this loaded

Counted locally with the o200k_base tokenizer, which is exact for GPT models; Claude uses its own tokenizer and its counts differ. Treat this as one consistent yardstick across the catalogue rather than a bill. Prices are per million input tokens.

ModelPer sessionOnce invoked
Fable 5.1 $0.00006 $0.13215
Opus 5 $0.00003 $0.06607
Sonnet 5 $0.00001 $0.02643
Haiku 4.5 $0.00001 $0.01321

Measured 12d ago against content hash ddfa147780cc, method: parsed. Prices are Anthropic first-party input rates as of 2026-09-12, from the pricing page.

Security

Grade B, and why

uncertainty-mlp scanned grade B with 2 findings against 26 rules in 11 categories — prompt injection, anti-refusal, data exfiltration, privilege escalation, supply chain, agent snooping, system-prompt leakage, SSRF and excessive agency — measured 12d ago.

A static scan of the body, not an audit. Every finding is printed with the line that produced it so you can judge whether it matters here. A mod is markdown that instructs an agent; that is exactly why what it instructs is worth reading.

Strips warnings and disclaimersmediumAnti-refusal

Omitting safety caveats hides risk from the user and is a common jailbreak preamble.

| Overconfident extrapolation — ensemble collapse | σ_F is uniformly low (< σ_low) for all MD frames including frames where the MD trajectory later diverges; the model fails catastrophically without any warning from the

Runs shell commandslowCapability

Expected in a hook, worth knowing in a rule or an instructions file.

subprocess.run(cmd, check=True)
skills/ml-interatomic-potentials/uncertainty-mlp/SKILL.md · 889 lines

How it starts

The opening of the file, as written. The whole thing — 889 lines — stays where its author put it; the contents beside it link to each section on GitHub.

Uncertainty Quantification for ML Interatomic Potentials

Description

This skill covers practical uncertainty quantification (UQ) for machine-learned interatomic potentials: committee (ensemble) models, model-deviation computation for forces, energies, and stresses, calibration of uncertainty thresholds against DFT errors, SOAP-based structural dissimilarity as a complementary out-of-distribution (OOD) detector, conformal prediction for rigorous confidence intervals, uncertainty propagation through MD trajectories, and stopping/extrapolation criteria. Invoke this skill when designing the active learning acquisition strategy for a new MLP campaign, when diagnosing silent extrapolation in production MD, or when quantifying the reliability of MLP predictions for properties that depend on the model's generalization behavior.

Domain Context

An MLP evaluated on a structure outside its training distribution will produce incorrect forces with no error message and no indication of failure. The only way to detect this before a catastrophic MD trajectory is through an uncertainty estimate that flags the structure as novel relative to the training set. UQ for MLPs is therefore a safety mechanism, not a statistical nicety.

Epistemic versus aleatoric uncertainty. Epistemic uncertainty arises from insufficient training data: the model has not seen enough structures to constrain its predictions in a region of configuration space. This type of uncertainty can be reduced by adding more training data — it is the signal that drives active learning. Aleatoric uncertainty arises from irreducible noise in the labels (DFT numerical noise, finite k-mesh errors, SCF threshold effects). For well-converged DFT labels (EDIFF=1e-6, PREC=Accurate), aleatoric uncertainty is typically < 1 meV/Å for forces and is negligible relative to model extrapolation errors. In practice, committee model disagreement primarily measures epistemic uncertainty, but cannot cleanly separate it from aleatoric contributions.

Read the full file on GitHub · 889 lines

Changes

What this file has done since we first saw it

Hashed on every crawl. A supply-chain change to an agent config is a question of when, not whether, so the history is kept rather than the latest state alone.

  1. 12d ago First seen · 889 lines · 6 tokens per session scan B ddfa147780cc

Subscribe to this mod's changes

uncertainty-mlp is a skill published in the GitHub repository SFETNI/Deep-Matter-Chem-Skills (6 stars, last pushed 1mo ago), licensed MIT. It adds 6 tokens to every session and 13,215 once invoked, about $0.0000 per session on Opus 5. A static security scan graded it B with 2 findings (strips warnings and disclaimers, runs shell commands). No closer match exists in the catalogue, so it is treated as the original; first seen 2026-08-31.

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