distribution-shift

distribution-shift is a skill for Claude Code from StamKavid/last-ds-mile. It costs 73 tokens per session (1,144 once invoked), scanned A, original, MIT.

A check for distribution shift, which happens when the data used to train a model differs from the future, production, or test data it will receive. It compares the datasets using an adversarial classifier and feature-level drift checks.

In plain words
What is it for?
Use it when real or held-out performance is much worse than validation performance, or when checking whether training data still resembles production or test data.
Why use it?
A model can perform well in cross-validation yet fail on real data if the populations or collection processes differ. This identifies that mismatch.

Skill for Claude Code

Written for Claude Code: shipped in a Claude Code plugin.

Part of the last-ds-mile plugin — 29 skills, 17 commands, 3 agents, 4 hooks shipped together

Good fit Use it when real or held-out performance is much worse than validation performance, or when checking whether training data still resembles production or test data.

Compare 6 skills from other repositories ↓
Install with agentmods
npx agentmods add skills/stamkavid/last-ds-mile/distribution-shift
Install

Getting it into your agent

One page per mod, every tool's command on it. A separate URL per tool would split the same page into five that compete with each other.

Any agent
npx skills add StamKavid/last-ds-mile --skill distribution-shift
Clone the repo
git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/StamKavid/last-ds-mile

Made for: Claude Code.

Or install last-ds-mile, the plugin that ships this one along with the rest of its 29 skills, 17 commands, 3 agents, 4 hooks.

Wrote this? Show the measurements

A badge with what this costs and how it scanned, read live from this page, so it follows the numbers instead of freezing them. Markdown for a README, HTML for a documentation site or a project page.

agentmods badge for distribution-shift

README.md
[![agentmods](https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/stamkavid/last-ds-mile/distribution-shift/github.svg)](https://agentmods.dev/skills/stamkavid/last-ds-mile/distribution-shift)
Your own site
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/stamkavid/last-ds-mile/distribution-shift"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/stamkavid/last-ds-mile/distribution-shift/github.svg" alt="Measured on agentmods" height="20"></a>

Or the 80×15 button, for a site that already has a row of RSS and ATOM ones. Only the verdict fits; the numbers stay here.

agentmods 80×15 button for distribution-shift

Your own site · 80×15
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/stamkavid/last-ds-mile/distribution-shift"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/stamkavid/last-ds-mile/distribution-shift.svg" alt="Reviewed on agentmods" width="80" height="20"></a>
Per session 73 Skills are progressive disclosure: only the name and description are preloaded; the body loads when the skill is used.
When invoked 1,144 The whole file, excluding the scripts and references it only reads on demand.
Security scan A 0 findings. A grade says what 26 rules found in the file — not that it is safe.
Origin original No closer match found in the catalogue.
Token cost

What it costs to keep this loaded

Counted locally with the o200k_base tokenizer, which is exact for GPT models; Claude uses its own tokenizer and its counts differ. Treat this as one consistent yardstick across the catalogue rather than a bill. Prices are per million input tokens.

ModelPer sessionOnce invoked
Fable 5.1 $0.00073 $0.01144
Opus 5 $0.00036 $0.00572
Sonnet 5 $0.00015 $0.00229
Haiku 4.5 $0.00007 $0.00114

Measured 8d ago against content hash 0f40515fe3fd, method: parsed. Prices are Anthropic first-party input rates as of 2026-09-08, from the pricing page.

Security

Grade A, and why

distribution-shift scanned grade A with 0 findings against 26 rules in 11 categories — prompt injection, anti-refusal, data exfiltration, privilege escalation, supply chain, agent snooping, system-prompt leakage, SSRF and excessive agency — measured 8d ago.

A static scan of the body, not an audit. Every finding is printed with the line that produced it so you can judge whether it matters here. A mod is markdown that instructs an agent; that is exactly why what it instructs is worth reading.

Nothing flagged

None of the 26 patterns this scan looks for appear in this file: no shell pipes, no recursive deletes, no credential paths, no hidden text, no instruction-override or anti-refusal phrasing, no agent-config snooping. That is not a guarantee, it is the absence of the things that are checkable.

skills/distribution-shift/SKILL.md · 85 lines

How it starts

The opening of the file, as written. The whole thing — 85 lines — stays where its author put it; the contents beside it link to each section on GitHub.

distribution-shift

Overview

A validation split only tells you the model generalizes within the training distribution. It says nothing about whether that distribution matches where the model will actually be scored — a future time period, a different population, or a Kaggle test set collected slightly differently from train. This is the question /ds-validate's time/group/imbalance checklist doesn't ask.

When to Use

  • During /ds-validate, as a fourth structural question alongside time, groups, and imbalance.
  • A model scores well in CV but the leaderboard/production/holdout score is substantially worse — the classic symptom of unaddressed shift.
  • NOT for: leakage inside a feature (see target-leakage-detection) — shift is about train and test/production being drawn from different distributions, not about a feature encoding the target.

Core Process

  1. Adversarial validation: label every training row 0 and every test/production row 1 (using only features available in both), fit a classifier to discriminate them, and cross-validate its AUC.
    • AUC ≈ 0.5: train and test look like the same distribution — proceed normally.
    • AUC ≫ 0.5 (roughly >0.7): the classifier can tell train and test apart easily — real distribution shift exists, and CV performance is at risk of not transferring.
  2. If shift is detected, use the adversarial classifier's own feature importance to find which features drive the separation — that tells you what changed (a feature whose meaning drifted, a time-dependent feature, a population change) more directly than eyeballing every column.
  3. For each of the top drifting features, compare train vs. test distributions directly (histogram overlay for numeric, value-count comparison for categorical) to confirm the adversarial signal against something visual, not just a single AUC number.
  4. Decide the fix based on what's driving it: drop or reweight a feature that drifted for a spurious reason (e.g. an ID-like column, a date artifact); if the drift is a genuine, expected population/time change, adjust the validation split (e.g. move to a temporal holdout that mimics the real gap) rather than the features.
  5. Record the adversarial-validation AUC and any features flagged in .last-ds-mile/stages/05-validate.md alongside the split decision — this is evidence for why the split was chosen, not a separate report.

Read the full file on GitHub · 85 lines

Changes

What this file has done since we first saw it

Hashed on every crawl. A supply-chain change to an agent config is a question of when, not whether, so the history is kept rather than the latest state alone.

  1. 8d ago First seen · 85 lines · 73 tokens per session scan A 0f40515fe3fd

Subscribe to this mod's changes

distribution-shift is a skill published in the GitHub repository StamKavid/last-ds-mile (3 stars, last pushed 1mo ago), licensed MIT. It adds 73 tokens to every session and 1,144 once invoked, about $0.0004 per session on Opus 5. A static security scan graded it A with 0 findings. No closer match exists in the catalogue, so it is treated as the original; first seen 2026-08-31.

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