Getting it into your agent
One page per mod, every tool's command on it. A separate URL per tool would split the same page into five that compete with each other.
npx skills add sun-btc/biga --skill biga-cyclical-skillgit clone --depth 1 https://github.com/sun-btc/bigaWrote this? Show the measurements
A badge with what this costs and how it scanned, read live from this page, so it follows the numbers instead of freezing them. Markdown for a README, HTML for a documentation site or a project page.
[](https://agentmods.dev/skills/sun-btc/biga/biga-cyclical-skill)<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/sun-btc/biga/biga-cyclical-skill"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/sun-btc/biga/biga-cyclical-skill.svg" alt="Measured on agentmods" height="20"></a>What it costs to keep this loaded
Counted locally with the o200k_base tokenizer, which is exact for GPT models; Claude uses its own tokenizer and its counts differ. Treat this as one consistent yardstick across the catalogue rather than a bill. Prices are per million input tokens.
| Model | Per session | Once invoked |
|---|---|---|
| Fable 5.1 | $0.00196 | $0.04579 |
| Opus 5 | $0.00098 | $0.02289 |
| Sonnet 5 | $0.00039 | $0.00916 |
| Haiku 4.5 | $0.00020 | $0.00458 |
Grade A, and why
biga-cyclical-skill scanned grade A with 0 findings against 26 rules in 11 categories — prompt injection, anti-refusal, data exfiltration, privilege escalation, supply chain, agent snooping, system-prompt leakage, SSRF and excessive agency — measured 7d ago.
A static scan of the body, not an audit. Every finding is printed with the line that produced it so you can judge whether it matters here. A mod is markdown that instructs an agent; that is exactly why what it instructs is worth reading.
Nothing flagged
None of the 26 patterns this scan looks for appear in this file: no shell pipes, no recursive deletes, no credential paths, no hidden text, no instruction-override or anti-refusal phrasing, no agent-config snooping. That is not a guarantee, it is the absence of the things that are checkable.
How it starts
The opening of the file, as written. The whole thing — 400 lines — stays where its author put it; the contents beside it link to each section on GitHub.
周期投资策略分析 Skill
使用目标
使用本 skill 帮用户理解和应用“周期投资策略”。周期投资的重点不是找到一家好公司然后一直拿，而是判断行业景气、商品价格、企业利润和估值之间的周期位置。
核心链条：
商品价格上涨 → 企业利润上升 → 股价上涨
商品价格下跌 → 企业利润下降 → 股价下跌
周期投资适合愿意持续跟踪宏观、供需、库存、价格、产能、成本和企业财务变化的用户。对新人，应默认采用“先学习框架、少量观察、小仓位参与、避免杠杆和重仓”的保守框架。
重要提示：所有输出都应定位为投资教育和研究框架，不构成任何直接投资建议，不承诺收益，不替用户做买卖决策。
触发场景
当用户提出以下问题时，使用本 skill：
- 分析“周期投资”“周期股”“资源股”“商品周期”“产能周期”。
- 询问煤炭、有色金属、铜、铝、锂、钢铁、化工、航运、石油、建材、水泥、玻璃、猪周期、农产品等强周期行业。
- 想判断某个周期股低 PE 是低估还是周期顶部。
- 想判断某个周期股高 PE、亏损或 PB 较低时是不是周期底部。
- 询问商品涨价、库存下降、供给出清、行业限产、价格反弹对股票的影响。
- 要求建立周期股筛选清单、买入前假设、持有跟踪和退出规则。
- 新人想参与周期股，但不了解周期反转、估值陷阱和仓位控制。
- 要求比较两个或多个周期行业的景气度和风险。
回答原则
- 先判断周期位置，再讨论估值和标的。周期股的估值必须结合利润所处阶段，不能孤立看 PE。
- 先讲风险，再讲机会。周期投资对拐点判断要求高，错误判断可能导致长期套牢。
- 对新人默认建议观察、小仓位或行业 ETF，不鼓励重仓单一周期股。
- 不直接输出“必买”“一定见底”“满仓周期股”等结论。
- 如果用户要求具体股票推荐，转为研究框架、筛选条件、风险等级和需核验数据清单。
- 如果缺少实时价格、库存、产能或财报数据，应明确说明需要补充的数据，不编造当前景气位置。
- 涉及期货、杠杆、周期品衍生品时，明确风险显著高于普通股票和 ETF，新人不建议参与。
周期投资的核心逻辑
周期行业的盈利主要由供需和价格驱动，而不是单纯由公司经营能力决定。
分析时按以下链条拆解：
需求变化 → 库存变化 → 商品价格变化 → 企业收入和毛利率变化 → 利润变化 → 估值变化 → 股价变化
重点理解：
- 商品涨价通常会放大企业利润弹性。
- 商品跌价通常会压缩毛利率，甚至导致亏损和资产减值。
- 行业产能扩张通常滞后于价格上涨，容易在高景气后形成过剩。
- 行业出清通常滞后于价格下跌，底部可能持续较久。
- 股价经常提前反映周期预期，而不是等财报确认后才变化。
周期行业与关键观察指标
| 行业 | 核心周期变量 | 关键观察指标 | 主要风险 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 煤炭 | 煤价、产能、进口、火电需求 | 动力煤/焦煤价格、港口库存、日耗、进口量、长协比例 | 政策限价、需求下降、产能释放、分红不可持续 |
| 有色金属 | 全球供需、美元、库存、矿山供给 | 铜/铝/锂/镍价格、LME/国内库存、加工费、矿山扰动 | 全球衰退、价格回落、扩产过剩、资源税费变化 |
| 钢铁 | 地产基建需求、铁矿焦煤成本、产量 | 钢价、吨钢利润、社会库存、开工率、粗钢产量 | 需求弱、成本挤压、限产政策、资产负债压力 |
| 化工 | 原油成本、供需、产能周期 | 产品价差、开工率、库存、产能投放、原油价格 | 新产能集中投放、价格战、环保安全事故 |
| 航运 | 运价、船舶供给、贸易需求 | BDI、集运指数、油轮运价、订单船占比、港口拥堵 | 新船交付、贸易下滑、运价快速回落 |
| 石油 | 油价、OPEC 供给、地缘、需求 | Brent/WTI、库存、钻机数、OPEC 政策、裂解价差 | 油价下跌、政策干预、能源替代、地缘反转 |
| 建材 | 地产基建、区域供需、库存 | 水泥/玻璃价格、库容比、出货率、地产开工 | 地产下行、区域过剩、价格协同破裂 |
| 农业周期 | 供给繁育、天气、成本、库存 | 猪价、能繁母猪、出栏量、饲料成本、农产品库存 | 疫病、政策收储、成本上升、企业高负债 |
周期位置判断框架
| 周期阶段 | 常见特征 | 投资含义 | 主要陷阱 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 底部左侧 | 价格低迷、企业亏损、库存高、产能仍未明显退出 | 可以研究但不急于重仓 | 底部可能持续很久，亏损企业现金流恶化 |
| 底部右侧 | 库存下降、价格止跌、落后产能退出、龙头现金流改善 | 关注拐点验证 | 反弹可能只是短期补库 |
| 上行中段 | 价格上涨、利润改善、库存健康、需求较强 | 景气改善较明确 | 股价可能已提前反映 |
| 高景气顶部 | 利润极高、PE 很低、扩产积极、市场预期乐观 | 保持警惕，重视退出 | 低 PE 可能是周期顶部陷阱 |
| 下行周期 | 价格回落、库存累积、利润下滑、减值增加 | 避免用历史高利润估值 | 以为“跌多了就便宜”但盈利继续下修 |
| 无法判断 | 数据矛盾或缺少关键变量 | 不强行结论 | 用叙事替代数据 |
What this file has done since we first saw it
Hashed on every crawl. A supply-chain change to an agent config is a question of when, not whether, so the history is kept rather than the latest state alone.
- 7d ago First seen · 400 lines · 196 tokens per session scan A 40d5c99ad096
biga-cyclical-skill is a skill published in the GitHub repository sun-btc/biga (5 stars, last pushed 3mo ago), licensed MIT. It adds 196 tokens to every session and 4,579 once invoked, about $0.0010 per session on Opus 5. A static security scan graded it A with 0 findings. No closer match exists in the catalogue, so it is treated as the original; first seen 2026-08-31.
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