Getting it into your agent
One page per mod, every tool's command on it. A separate URL per tool would split the same page into five that compete with each other.
npx skills add The-Artificer-of-Ciphers-LLC/skills-from-the-artificer --skill norvigs-lawgit clone --depth 1 https://github.com/The-Artificer-of-Ciphers-LLC/skills-from-the-artificerWrote this? Show the measurements
A badge with what this costs and how it scanned, read live from this page, so it follows the numbers instead of freezing them. Markdown for a README, HTML for a documentation site or a project page.
[](https://agentmods.dev/skills/the-artificer-of-ciphers-llc/skills-from-the-artificer/norvigs-law)<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/the-artificer-of-ciphers-llc/skills-from-the-artificer/norvigs-law"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/the-artificer-of-ciphers-llc/skills-from-the-artificer/norvigs-law/github.svg" alt="Measured on agentmods" height="20"></a>Or the 80×15 button, for a site that already has a row of RSS and ATOM ones. Only the verdict fits; the numbers stay here.
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/the-artificer-of-ciphers-llc/skills-from-the-artificer/norvigs-law"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/the-artificer-of-ciphers-llc/skills-from-the-artificer/norvigs-law.svg" alt="Reviewed on agentmods" width="80" height="20"></a>What it costs to keep this loaded
Counted locally with the o200k_base tokenizer, which is exact for GPT models; Claude uses its own tokenizer and its counts differ. Treat this as one consistent yardstick across the catalogue rather than a bill. Prices are per million input tokens.
| Model | Per session | Once invoked |
|---|---|---|
| Fable 5.1 | $0.00104 | $0.00738 |
| Opus 5.5 | $0.00042 | $0.00295 |
| Sonnet 5.5 | $0.00021 | $0.00148 |
| Haiku 4.5 | $0.00010 | $0.00074 |
Grade A, and why
norvigs-law scanned grade A with 0 findings against 26 rules in 11 categories — prompt injection, anti-refusal, data exfiltration, privilege escalation, supply chain, agent snooping, system-prompt leakage, SSRF and excessive agency — measured 1mo ago.
A static scan of the body, not an audit. Every finding is printed with the line that produced it so you can judge whether it matters here. A mod is markdown that instructs an agent; that is exactly why what it instructs is worth reading.
Nothing flagged
None of the 26 patterns this scan looks for appear in this file: no shell pipes, no recursive deletes, no credential paths, no hidden text, no instruction-override or anti-refusal phrasing, no agent-config snooping. That is not a guarantee, it is the absence of the things that are checkable.
How it starts
The opening of the file, as written. The whole thing — 60 lines — stays where its author put it; the contents beside it link to each section on GitHub.
Norvig's Law
"Any technology that surpasses 50% penetration will never double again." — Peter Norvig, 1999
The core idea
This is a deliberately simple, tongue-in-cheek observation about mathematics and the growth of technology. If a technology already reaches more than 50% of its target market, it cannot double again — because doubling would require more than 100% penetration, which is impossible.
More broadly: growth rates that sound impressive early in adoption become mathematically constrained as penetration increases. The "doubling" narrative that works at 1% doesn't work at 51%.
Why this matters
Evaluating growth claims: When someone says "smartphone adoption will double in the next 5 years," check the current penetration rate. If it's already at 60% of the relevant population, doubling is impossible. Claims like this reveal either innumeracy or deliberate misdirection.
Understanding S-curves: Technology adoption typically follows an S-curve:
- Slow initial growth (early adopters)
- Rapid growth through the middle (majority adoption)
- Flattening as the market saturates
A lot of projections implicitly assume you're always in the middle "rapid growth" phase, even when you're clearly approaching saturation. Norvig's Law is a quick check: where are we on the S-curve?
Skepticism about market reports: Analyst reports and press releases frequently cite impressive percentage growth rates for technologies that are approaching saturation. If a technology is at 60% penetration and grows to 65%, that's a ~8% growth rate — but the absolute potential for further growth is limited.
Recognizing when "growth" means something different: When a saturated market shows "doubling," it usually means something changed about how the metric is being measured — a new geography, a new segment, a redefinition of the market. That's worth understanding before acting on the number.
The broader principle: numbers need context
Norvig's Law is really an exercise in critical numeracy:
- Percentages need a denominator.
- Growth rates need a baseline.
- "Doubling" from a tiny base is very different from doubling from a large one.
- Market size claims need a clear definition of the market.
What this file has done since we first saw it
Hashed on every crawl. A supply-chain change to an agent config is a question of when, not whether, so the history is kept rather than the latest state alone.
- 1mo ago First seen · 60 lines · 104 tokens per session scan A 4eae82749093
norvigs-law is a skill published in the GitHub repository The-Artificer-of-Ciphers-LLC/skills-from-the-artificer (6 stars, last pushed yesterday), licensed MIT. It adds 104 tokens to every session and 738 once invoked, about $0.0004 per session on Opus 5.5. A static security scan graded it A with 0 findings. No closer match exists in the catalogue, so it is treated as the original; first seen 2026-08-31.
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