Getting it into your agent
One page per mod, every tool's command on it. A separate URL per tool would split the same page into five that compete with each other.
npx skills add thuong-nc/perlytics-skill --skill hypothesis-treegit clone --depth 1 https://github.com/thuong-nc/perlytics-skillWrote this? Show the measurements
A badge with what this costs and how it scanned, read live from this page, so it follows the numbers instead of freezing them. Markdown for a README, HTML for a documentation site or a project page.
[](https://agentmods.dev/skills/thuong-nc/perlytics-skill/hypothesis-tree)<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/thuong-nc/perlytics-skill/hypothesis-tree"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/thuong-nc/perlytics-skill/hypothesis-tree.svg" alt="Measured on agentmods" height="20"></a>What it costs to keep this loaded
Counted locally with the o200k_base tokenizer, which is exact for GPT models; Claude uses its own tokenizer and its counts differ. Treat this as one consistent yardstick across the catalogue rather than a bill. Prices are per million input tokens.
| Model | Per session | Once invoked |
|---|---|---|
| Fable 5.1 | $0.00026 | $0.00475 |
| Opus 5 | $0.00013 | $0.00237 |
| Sonnet 5 | $0.00005 | $0.00095 |
| Haiku 4.5 | $0.00003 | $0.00047 |
Grade A, and why
hypothesis-tree scanned grade A with 0 findings against 26 rules in 11 categories — prompt injection, anti-refusal, data exfiltration, privilege escalation, supply chain, agent snooping, system-prompt leakage, SSRF and excessive agency — measured 7d ago.
A static scan of the body, not an audit. Every finding is printed with the line that produced it so you can judge whether it matters here. A mod is markdown that instructs an agent; that is exactly why what it instructs is worth reading.
Nothing flagged
None of the 26 patterns this scan looks for appear in this file: no shell pipes, no recursive deletes, no credential paths, no hidden text, no instruction-override or anti-refusal phrasing, no agent-config snooping. That is not a guarantee, it is the absence of the things that are checkable.
How it starts
The opening of the file, as written. The whole thing — 87 lines — stays where its author put it; the contents beside it link to each section on GitHub.
Hypothesis Tree
Purpose
Create a structured set of plausible explanations before running or narrating analysis.
When to use
Use this skill when:
- a KPI moved and several drivers are possible
- the team is jumping to one explanation too early
- you need a clean investigation plan
When not to use
Do not use this skill when:
- the causal mechanism is already established
- the task is only to summarize known findings
Required thinking discipline
- Treat hypotheses as candidates, not facts.
- Organize them into mutually understandable branches.
- Prefer decompositions that map to measurable checks.
- Prefer branches that can be disproved.
- Evidence constraint: Every conclusion must cite specific data — a number, a rate, a segment, or a timeframe. Do not speculate without evidential basis. If data is insufficient, state what is missing rather than asserting an unsupported inference.
Workflow
- State the target metric and baseline.
- Decompose the metric into major driver branches.
- Under each branch, list plausible sub-hypotheses.
- For each hypothesis, note what evidence would support or weaken it.
- Rank branches by likely impact and testability.
Output format
- Question
- Target metric and baseline
- Hypothesis tree
- Evidence to check per branch
- Priority order
- Risks of premature conclusion
Good example
Question:
Why did checkout conversion fall?
Good branches:
- traffic mix changed
- cart intent quality changed
- checkout step friction changed
- payment success changed
- measurement changed
Bad example
Users probably got confused by the checkout page.
Why this is bad:
- it picks one story too early
- it ignores acquisition mix and measurement risk
- it offers no structured test plan
Practical notes
- Include "measurement or instrumentation issue" as a branch unless clearly ruled out.
- Use the metric formula to guide the tree where possible.
Optional variants
- Executive variant: 3-5 top branches only.
- Analyst variant: include specific checks and likely data cuts.
What ships with it
2 files beside SKILL.md in the same directory: the scripts, references and assets a skill reads on demand. Not counted in the per-session cost; read them before you install if any of them is executable.
What this file has done since we first saw it
Hashed on every crawl. A supply-chain change to an agent config is a question of when, not whether, so the history is kept rather than the latest state alone.
- 7d ago First seen · 87 lines · 26 tokens per session scan A f76012792b1c
hypothesis-tree is a skill published in the GitHub repository thuong-nc/perlytics-skill (5 stars, last pushed 5mo ago), licensed Apache-2.0. It adds 26 tokens to every session and 475 once invoked, about $0.0001 per session on Opus 5. A static security scan graded it A with 0 findings. No closer match exists in the catalogue, so it is treated as the original; first seen 2026-08-31.
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