skill-044-monthly-budget-pacing-analysis

Skill 044: Monthly Budget Pacing Analysis

Purpose

Monthly budget management prevents overspend that exceeds limits and underspend that leaves opportunity on the table. This skill monitors current spend vs monthly targets, projects month-end spend, identifies campaigns trending over or under budget, and recommends corrective actions.

Data Requirements

Data Source: Custom GAQL Required

The standard export provides aggregated 30-day data but not daily spend patterns needed for pacing analysis.

Standard Data:

• data/account/campaigns/*/campaign.md - Daily budgets, settings
• data/performance/campaigns/*/campaign_metrics_30_days.md - Total spend (used for baseline)

GAQL Query:

SELECT
  campaign.id,
  campaign.name,
  campaign_budget.amount_micros,
  metrics.cost_micros,
  segments.date
FROM campaign
WHERE campaign.status = 'ENABLED'
  AND segments.date DURING THIS_MONTH
ORDER BY segments.date

Run via /google-ads:get-custom with query name monthly_pacing.

Analysis Steps

1. Establish monthly targets: Monthly target = Daily budget * Days in month (or explicit monthly budget if provided).

2. Calculate current pacing: Days elapsed, expected spend % = Days elapsed / Total days, actual spend %, pacing ratio = Actual % / Expected %.

3. Assess pacing status: >1.15 = Overpacing, 0.95-1.05 = On pace, <0.85 = Significantly underpacing.

4. Project month-end spend: Linear projection and trailing 7-day average projection.

5. Identify variance causes: Budget changes, bid strategy changes, seasonality, competition changes, impression share losses.

Thresholds

Condition	Severity
Pacing ratio <0.80	Critical
Pacing ratio >1.20	Critical
Projected overspend >10%	High
Projected underspend >15%	High
Pacing ratio 0.80-0.90	Warning
Pacing ratio 1.10-1.20	Warning
Daily spend declining trend (7 days)	Warning
Pacing ratio 0.90-1.10	Info

Output