skill-150-post-peak-negative-seasonality-adjustment

Skill 150: Post-Peak Negative Seasonality Adjustment

Purpose

Audit recently completed events and recommend negative seasonality adjustments to prevent Smart Bidding from overspending during post-event conversion rate drops. After promotional peaks, algorithms continue bidding based on elevated historical performance, leading to overpayment for traffic that is now less likely to convert.

Data Requirements

Data Source: Custom GAQL Required

Need to compare event period vs. post-event period performance, which requires specific date range queries.

GAQL Query (Post-Event Performance):

SELECT
  campaign.name,
  segments.date,
  metrics.impressions,
  metrics.clicks,
  metrics.conversions,
  metrics.cost_micros,
  metrics.average_cpc
FROM campaign
WHERE campaign.status = 'ENABLED'
  AND segments.date BETWEEN '[EVENT_END_DATE]' AND '[POST_EVENT_END]'

Run via /google-ads:get-custom with event period and post-event period queries for comparison.

Additional Requirements:

• Knowledge of recently completed events (within past 30 days)
• Access to bid strategy seasonality adjustment settings

Analysis Steps

1. Identify recently completed events: Review calendar for events ended within past 30 days
2. Compare performance periods: Query event period vs. post-event period conversion rates
3. Calculate CR decline: Measure conversion rate drop percentage post-event
4. Check negative adjustments: Verify adjustments are configured for significant declines
5. Monitor CPC trends: Identify elevated CPCs indicating algorithmic overbidding

Thresholds

Condition	Severity
Post-event CR drop >30% with no negative adjustment	Critical
CPCs elevated >15% post-event while CR declined	Critical
Negative adjustment weaker than actual CR decline	Warning
Adjustment duration too short for recovery period	Warning
Minor event (<15% CR change) without adjustment	Info

Output

Short format (default):

## Post-Peak Adjustment Audit
**Account:** [Name] | **Recent events:** [X] | **Adjustment gaps:** [Y]

### Critical ([Count])
- **Post-[Event]**: CR dropped [X]%, no adjustment -> Create -[Y]% adjustment for [dates]

### Warnings ([Count])
- **[Event]**: Adjustment -[X]% but actual drop -[Y]% -> Increase to -[Z]%

### Recommendations
1. [Specific negative adjustment with percentage, dates, and campaigns]