Getting it into your agent
One page per mod, every tool's command on it. A separate URL per tool would split the same page into five that compete with each other.
npx skills add yogsoth-ai/stress-test --skill counterfactual-probinggit clone --depth 1 https://github.com/yogsoth-ai/stress-testWrote this? Show the measurements
A badge with what this costs and how it scanned, read live from this page, so it follows the numbers instead of freezing them. Markdown for a README, HTML for a documentation site or a project page.
[](https://agentmods.dev/skills/yogsoth-ai/stress-test/counterfactual-probing)<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/yogsoth-ai/stress-test/counterfactual-probing"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/yogsoth-ai/stress-test/counterfactual-probing/github.svg" alt="Measured on agentmods" height="20"></a>Or the 80×15 button, for a site that already has a row of RSS and ATOM ones. Only the verdict fits; the numbers stay here.
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/yogsoth-ai/stress-test/counterfactual-probing"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/yogsoth-ai/stress-test/counterfactual-probing.svg" alt="Reviewed on agentmods" width="80" height="20"></a>What it costs to keep this loaded
Counted locally with the o200k_base tokenizer, which is exact for GPT models; Claude uses its own tokenizer and its counts differ. Treat this as one consistent yardstick across the catalogue rather than a bill. Prices are per million input tokens.
| Model | Per session | Once invoked |
|---|---|---|
| Fable 5.1 | $0.00055 | $0.01222 |
| Opus 5 | $0.00028 | $0.00611 |
| Sonnet 5 | $0.00011 | $0.00244 |
| Haiku 4.5 | $0.00006 | $0.00122 |
Grade A, and why
counterfactual-probing scanned grade A with 0 findings against 26 rules in 11 categories — prompt injection, anti-refusal, data exfiltration, privilege escalation, supply chain, agent snooping, system-prompt leakage, SSRF and excessive agency — measured 10d ago.
A static scan of the body, not an audit. Every finding is printed with the line that produced it so you can judge whether it matters here. A mod is markdown that instructs an agent; that is exactly why what it instructs is worth reading.
Nothing flagged
None of the 26 patterns this scan looks for appear in this file: no shell pipes, no recursive deletes, no credential paths, no hidden text, no instruction-override or anti-refusal phrasing, no agent-config snooping. That is not a guarantee, it is the absence of the things that are checkable.
How it starts
The opening of the file, as written. The whole thing — 115 lines — stays where its author put it; the contents beside it link to each section on GitHub.
Counterfactual Probing Campaign
Core question: If key factors were different, would the conclusion still hold?
Methodology Sources
- Pearl (2000) — Structural Causal Models, Three-Step counterfactual procedure
- Lewis (1973) — Possible Worlds semantics for counterfactuals
- Tetlock & Belkin (1996) — Counterfactual thought experiments in world politics
- Fearon (1991) — Counterfactuals and hypothesis testing in political science
- Williamson (2007) — The Philosophy of Philosophy, thought experiment methodology
Strategy Routing
| Artifact Type | Primary Strategy | Fallback Strategy |
|---|---|---|
| hypothesis, claim | structural-counterfactual | necessity-sufficiency |
| research-question | thought-experiment | closest-worlds |
| idea, approach | factor-removal | closest-worlds |
| experiment-design | necessity-sufficiency | structural-counterfactual |
| gap | closest-worlds | factor-removal |
Budget Table
| Parameter | S (Quick) | M (Standard) | L (Deep) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Factors examined | 5 | 10 | 20 |
| Counterfactual scenarios | 3 | 8 | 15 |
| Necessity tests | 3 | 6 | 12 |
| Flip-point search depth | 2 | 4 | 8 |
Tactics
- systematic-factor-ablation — Remove factors one at a time, observe conclusion stability
- minimal-change-search — Find smallest change that flips the conclusion
- causal-necessity-testing — Evaluate necessity and sufficiency of each causal claim
Context Management
Each subagent operates in isolated context. Factor enumeration precedes all counterfactual reasoning. Scenarios are constructed with minimal deviation from actuality. Fragility measurements aggregate across all tested factors.
Output
Produces CounterfactualMap containing: load-bearing factors ranked by necessity, fragility index per factor, flip-points identified, robustness assessment, and recommended sensitivity analyses.
Available Strategies
Optional, no fixed order; the final leaf is always a sop.
What this file has done since we first saw it
Hashed on every crawl. A supply-chain change to an agent config is a question of when, not whether, so the history is kept rather than the latest state alone.
- 10d ago First seen · 115 lines · 55 tokens per session scan A 0c839bb37f09
counterfactual-probing is a skill published in the GitHub repository yogsoth-ai/stress-test (2 stars, last pushed 2mo ago), licensed Apache-2.0. It adds 55 tokens to every session and 1,222 once invoked, about $0.0003 per session on Opus 5. A static security scan graded it A with 0 findings. No closer match exists in the catalogue, so it is treated as the original; first seen 2026-08-31.
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