Getting it into your agent
One page per mod, every tool's command on it. A separate URL per tool would split the same page into five that compete with each other.
npx agentmods add skills/zircote-plugins/sigint/trend-modelingnpx skills add zircote-plugins/sigint --skill trend-modelinggit clone --depth 1 https://github.com/zircote-plugins/sigintWrote this? Show the measurements
A badge with what this costs and how it scanned, read live from this page, so it follows the numbers instead of freezing them. Markdown for a README, HTML for a documentation site or a project page.
[](https://agentmods.dev/skills/zircote-plugins/sigint/trend-modeling)<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/zircote-plugins/sigint/trend-modeling"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/zircote-plugins/sigint/trend-modeling.svg" alt="Measured on agentmods" height="20"></a>What it costs to keep this loaded
Counted locally with the o200k_base tokenizer, which is exact for GPT models; Claude uses its own tokenizer and its counts differ. Treat this as one consistent yardstick across the catalogue rather than a bill. Prices are per million input tokens.
| Model | Per session | Once invoked |
|---|---|---|
| Fable 5 | $0.00082 | $0.01816 |
| Opus 5 | $0.00041 | $0.00908 |
| Sonnet 5 | $0.00016 | $0.00363 |
| Haiku 4.5 | $0.00008 | $0.00182 |
Grade A, and why
trend-modeling scanned grade A with 0 findings against 26 rules in 11 categories — prompt injection, anti-refusal, data exfiltration, privilege escalation, supply chain, agent snooping, system-prompt leakage, SSRF and excessive agency — measured 5d ago.
A static scan of the body, not an audit. Every finding is printed with the line that produced it so you can judge whether it matters here. A mod is markdown that instructs an agent; that is exactly why what it instructs is worth reading.
Nothing flagged
None of the 26 patterns this scan looks for appear in this file: no shell pipes, no recursive deletes, no credential paths, no hidden text, no instruction-override or anti-refusal phrasing, no agent-config snooping. That is not a guarantee, it is the absence of the things that are checkable.
How it starts
The opening of the file, as written. The whole thing — 214 lines — stays where its author put it; the contents beside it link to each section on GitHub.
Trend Modeling with Three-Valued Logic
Overview
Based on research in trend-based optimization for product innovation, this skill applies three-valued logic (increasing/decreasing/constant) to analyze markets when precise numerical data is unavailable. This approach enables meaningful analysis with minimal information.
Required Frameworks
| Framework | Output Section | Required | Condition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Variables Table | Variables | yes | — |
| Relationship Matrix | Relationship Matrix | yes | — |
| Scenario Generation | Generated Scenarios | yes | — |
| Transitional Graph | Transitional Scenario Graph (Mermaid stateDiagram) | yes | — |
| Terminal Scenario Analysis | Terminal Scenario Analysis | yes | — |
| Multi-Objective Trade-offs | Trade-offs | yes | — |
Core Concept
Traditional market analysis requires extensive quantitative data. Three-valued logic provides an alternative when:
- Data is scarce or unreliable
- Relationships are qualitative
- Uncertainty is high
- Quick directional insights are needed
The Three Values
Load and apply the trend indicator definitions from protocols/TREND-INDICATORS.md. This skill uses the formal notation variant (INC(X, Y), DEC(X, Y)) and the extended notation (AG, DG, AD, DD) for acceleration/deceleration modifiers. See the protocol for full definitions.
CRITICAL: When the user provides correlation data, you MUST:
- Explicitly label each correlation as "positive correlation" or "negative correlation"
- Use the
INC(X, Y)orDEC(X, Y)notation format for each relationship - Show the conversion step clearly before building the relationship matrix
Example:
- Market size and competition have positive correlation →
INC(Market Size, Competition) - If Market Size = INC, then Competition = INC
- If Market Size = DEC, then Competition = DEC
- Price and demand have negative correlation →
DEC(Price, Demand) - If Price = INC, then Demand = DEC
- If Price = DEC, then Demand = INC
What ships with it
4 files beside SKILL.md in the same directory: the scripts, references and assets a skill reads on demand. Not counted in the per-session cost; read them before you install if any of them is executable.
What this file has done since we first saw it
Hashed on every crawl. A supply-chain change to an agent config is a question of when, not whether, so the history is kept rather than the latest state alone.
- 5d ago First seen · 214 lines · 82 tokens per session scan A 698c21fab0b8
trend-modeling is a skill published in the GitHub repository zircote-plugins/sigint (20 stars, last pushed 18d ago), licensed MIT. It adds 82 tokens to every session and 1,816 once invoked, about $0.0004 per session on Opus 5. A static security scan graded it A with 0 findings. No closer match exists in the catalogue, so it is treated as the original; first seen 2026-08-30.
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