incrementality-testing-guide

incrementality-testing-guide is a skill for Claude Code from Ad-Superpowers/ad-superpowers-plugin. It costs 98 tokens per session (3,116 once invoked), scanned A, original, MIT.

A guide to incrementality testing, which measures the extra results caused by advertising rather than results that would have happened anyway. It covers approaches such as geographic lift tests and holdout experiments, where some people or areas are deliberately not shown ads.

In plain words
What is it for?
Use it to plan tests for true advertising impact, estimate incremental return on ad spend, and assess whether campaigns create additional conversions.
Why use it?
It helps separate advertising’s causal effect from platform-reported attribution, which may claim credit for conversions that were not caused by the ad.

Skill for Claude Code

Written for Claude Code: shipped in a Claude Code plugin.

Part of the ad-superpowers plugin — 120 skills, 35 commands, 5 agents, 1 MCP server shipped together

Good fit Use it to plan tests for true advertising impact, estimate incremental return on ad spend, and assess whether campaigns create additional conversions.

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Install with agentmods
npx agentmods add skills/ad-superpowers/ad-superpowers-plugin/incrementality-testing-guide
Install

Getting it into your agent

One page per mod, every tool's command on it. A separate URL per tool would split the same page into five that compete with each other.

Any agent
npx skills add Ad-Superpowers/ad-superpowers-plugin --skill incrementality-testing-guide
Clone the repo
git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/Ad-Superpowers/ad-superpowers-plugin

Made for: Claude Code.

Or install ad-superpowers, the plugin that ships this one along with the rest of its 120 skills, 35 commands, 5 agents, 1 MCP server.

Wrote this? Show the measurements

A badge with what this costs and how it scanned, read live from this page, so it follows the numbers instead of freezing them. Markdown for a README, HTML for a documentation site or a project page.

agentmods badge for incrementality-testing-guide

README.md
[![agentmods](https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/ad-superpowers/ad-superpowers-plugin/incrementality-testing-guide/github.svg)](https://agentmods.dev/skills/ad-superpowers/ad-superpowers-plugin/incrementality-testing-guide)
Your own site
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/ad-superpowers/ad-superpowers-plugin/incrementality-testing-guide"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/ad-superpowers/ad-superpowers-plugin/incrementality-testing-guide/github.svg" alt="Measured on agentmods" height="20"></a>

Or the 80×15 button, for a site that already has a row of RSS and ATOM ones. Only the verdict fits; the numbers stay here.

agentmods 80×15 button for incrementality-testing-guide

Your own site · 80×15
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/ad-superpowers/ad-superpowers-plugin/incrementality-testing-guide"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/ad-superpowers/ad-superpowers-plugin/incrementality-testing-guide.svg" alt="Reviewed on agentmods" width="80" height="20"></a>
Per session 98 Skills are progressive disclosure: only the name and description are preloaded; the body loads when the skill is used.
When invoked 3,116 The whole file, excluding the scripts and references it only reads on demand.
Security scan A 0 findings. A grade says what 26 rules found in the file — not that it is safe.
Origin original No closer match found in the catalogue.
Token cost

What it costs to keep this loaded

Counted locally with the o200k_base tokenizer, which is exact for GPT models; Claude uses its own tokenizer and its counts differ. Treat this as one consistent yardstick across the catalogue rather than a bill. Prices are per million input tokens.

ModelPer sessionOnce invoked
Fable 5.1 $0.00098 $0.03116
Opus 5.5 $0.00039 $0.01246
Sonnet 5.5 $0.00020 $0.00623
Haiku 4.5 $0.00010 $0.00312

Measured 1mo ago against content hash 6d87cfcad923, method: parsed. Prices are Anthropic first-party input rates as of 2026-10-07, from the pricing page.

Security

Grade A, and why

incrementality-testing-guide scanned grade A with 0 findings against 26 rules in 11 categories — prompt injection, anti-refusal, data exfiltration, privilege escalation, supply chain, agent snooping, system-prompt leakage, SSRF and excessive agency — measured 1mo ago.

A static scan of the body, not an audit. Every finding is printed with the line that produced it so you can judge whether it matters here. A mod is markdown that instructs an agent; that is exactly why what it instructs is worth reading.

Nothing flagged

None of the 26 patterns this scan looks for appear in this file: no shell pipes, no recursive deletes, no credential paths, no hidden text, no instruction-override or anti-refusal phrasing, no agent-config snooping. That is not a guarantee, it is the absence of the things that are checkable.

plugin/skills/incrementality-testing-guide/SKILL.md · 379 lines

How it starts

The opening of the file, as written. The whole thing — 379 lines — stays where its author put it; the contents beside it link to each section on GitHub.

Incrementality Testing Guide

Purpose

Help advertisers understand and implement incrementality testing to measure the true causal impact of their advertising, beyond what traditional attribution can tell them.

When to Use This Skill

Invoke when user mentions:

  • Incrementality: "Is my advertising actually working?"
  • Testing: "How do I run a geo lift test?"
  • Attribution skepticism: "I don't trust platform reporting"
  • True ROAS: "What's my incremental ROAS?"
  • Holdout tests: "Should I run a holdout experiment?"
  • MMM/Econometrics: "What is marketing mix modeling?"
  • Conversion lift: "How do I set up a conversion lift study?"

Part 1: Why Incrementality Testing Matters

The Attribution Problem

Traditional attribution (last-click, platform-reported) has fundamental flaws:

Attribution Type What It Measures What It Misses
Last-click (GA4) Final touchpoint All assist interactions
Platform reporting Platform's attributed conversions Over-credits, includes organic
View-through Ad view → conversion Many would convert anyway
Multi-touch Weighted path credit Still doesn't prove causation

The Core Problem: Attribution tells you WHO converted after seeing an ad, not WHETHER the ad caused the conversion.

What Incrementality Testing Answers

The Question: "What additional conversions/revenue occurred BECAUSE of advertising that would NOT have happened without it?"

Metric Definition Formula
Incremental conversions Conversions caused by ads Test group - Control group
Incrementality rate % of conversions caused by ads (Test - Control) / Test
Incremental ROAS (iROAS) True return on ad spend Incremental Revenue / Ad Spend

Industry Benchmarks: Typical Incrementality Rates

Channel/Tactic Typical Incrementality Notes
Prospecting (cold audience) 70-90% Reaching new users
Generic search 75-95% High intent, new customers
Brand search 10-40% Users already looking for you
Retargeting (cart abandoners) 40-60% Some would return anyway
Retargeting (site visitors) 20-40% Higher cannibalization
Retargeting (past buyers) 15-30% Lowest incrementality
Social awareness 50-80% Hard to measure directly
Display prospecting 60-85% Depends on targeting

Read the full file on GitHub · 379 lines

Changes

What this file has done since we first saw it

Hashed on every crawl. A supply-chain change to an agent config is a question of when, not whether, so the history is kept rather than the latest state alone.

  1. 1mo ago First seen · 379 lines · 98 tokens per session scan A 6d87cfcad923

Subscribe to this mod's changes

incrementality-testing-guide is a skill published in the GitHub repository Ad-Superpowers/ad-superpowers-plugin (5 stars, last pushed 29d ago), licensed MIT. It adds 98 tokens to every session and 3,116 once invoked, about $0.0004 per session on Opus 5.5. A static security scan graded it A with 0 findings. No closer match exists in the catalogue, so it is treated as the original; first seen 2026-09-11.

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