kalshi-crypto-index-markets

Kalshi Crypto & Index Range Markets

Kalshi lists daily (and for crypto, hourly) range bracket markets on the level of four liquid underlyings: S&P 500, Nasdaq-100, Bitcoin, and Ethereum. The math is the same partition-and-Gaussian framework as weather brackets — the variable is just price/return and σ comes from the underlying's realized or implied volatility, not a temperature model.

Cross-references: for Kalshi API mechanics see kalshi-api; for the strategy, sizing, and backtesting framework see prediction-market-strategy; for the temperature counterpart see kalshi-weather-markets; for the shared bracket/overround formulas see prediction-markets/references/brackets-and-settlement.md.

Series & Market-Type Mapping

SERIES_MARKET = {
    "KXINX":       "index",   # S&P 500 index level
    "KXNASDAQ100": "index",   # Nasdaq-100 index level
    "KXBTC":       "crypto",  # Bitcoin price (USD)
    "KXETH":       "crypto",  # Ethereum price (USD)
}

• market_type = "index" — daily range only; underlying is the index points level at the official market close.
• market_type = "crypto" — daily and hourly range markets; BTC and ETH each have multiple hourly events running in parallel with the daily.

Cadence is higher than weather: crypto hourlies open and settle throughout the day; daily markets open the prior session and settle at the reference close.

Bracket Structure

Each event is a mutually exclusive, collectively exhaustive partition of the underlying's possible values at settlement:

• An interior bracket B<center> covers a contiguous price band (floor to cap, both-ends-inclusive). Bracket widths are set per-market — read the event's market list; do not assume a fixed width.
• Two open-tail markets anchor the partition: a less-than (below the lowest bracket floor) and a greater-than (above the highest bracket cap).
• At settlement exactly one bracket is YES; all others are NO.

The overround (sum of all YES prices) is typically > 1.0. The excess is concentrated in the cheap tails — the same favorite–longshot bias seen in weather markets. See prediction-markets/references/brackets-and-settlement.md for the overround formula.