scenario-planning

scenario-planning is a skill for Claude Code from cbrock84/headcount. It costs 78 tokens per session (683 once invoked), scanned A, original, MIT.

A method for making plans when important future conditions are uncertain. It builds several realistic versions of the future instead of relying on one forecast.

In plain words
What is it for?
Use it to identify key uncertainties, create scenarios, set early-warning signals, and stress-test decisions.
Why use it?
It reveals which assumptions matter most and helps a plan remain useful if conditions change.

Skill for Claude Code

Written for Claude Code: shipped in a Claude Code plugin.

Part of the corporate-strategy plugin — 6 skills shipped together

Good fit Use it to identify key uncertainties, create scenarios, set early-warning signals, and stress-test decisions.

Compare 6 skills from other repositories ↓
Install with agentmods
npx agentmods add skills/cbrock84/headcount/scenario-planning
About the project

headcount is an organization of independently installable Claude Code plugins, each grouping skills for a department such as finance, security, or demand generation. Claude Code users install the departments they need and invoke their skills for specialized work; the catalogue entries are skills and related agent tooling from that organization.

cbrock84/headcount · 1,300 stars · on GitHub · cbrock84.github.io

Install

Getting it into your agent

One page per mod, every tool's command on it. A separate URL per tool would split the same page into five that compete with each other.

Any agent
npx skills add cbrock84/headcount --skill scenario-planning
Clone the repo
git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/cbrock84/headcount

Made for: Claude Code.

Or install corporate-strategy, the plugin that ships this one along with the rest of its 6 skills.

Wrote this? Show the measurements

A badge with what this costs and how it scanned, read live from this page, so it follows the numbers instead of freezing them. Markdown for a README, HTML for a documentation site or a project page.

agentmods badge for scenario-planning

README.md
[![agentmods](https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/cbrock84/headcount/scenario-planning.svg)](https://agentmods.dev/skills/cbrock84/headcount/scenario-planning)
Your own site
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/cbrock84/headcount/scenario-planning"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/cbrock84/headcount/scenario-planning.svg" alt="Measured on agentmods" height="20"></a>
Per session 78 Skills are progressive disclosure: only the name and description are preloaded; the body loads when the skill is used.
When invoked 683 The whole file, excluding the scripts and references it only reads on demand.
Security scan A 0 findings. A grade says what 26 rules found in the file — not that it is safe. Third-party audits
  • NVIDIA SkillSpector pass 7 Sept 2026
How audits are shown
Origin original No closer match found in the catalogue.
Token cost

What it costs to keep this loaded

Counted locally with the o200k_base tokenizer, which is exact for GPT models; Claude uses its own tokenizer and its counts differ. Treat this as one consistent yardstick across the catalogue rather than a bill. Prices are per million input tokens.

ModelPer sessionOnce invoked
Fable 5.1 $0.00078 $0.00683
Opus 5 $0.00039 $0.00342
Sonnet 5 $0.00016 $0.00137
Haiku 4.5 $0.00008 $0.00068

Measured 8d ago against content hash 45b5fec715bf, method: parsed. Prices are Anthropic first-party input rates as of 2026-09-07, from the pricing page.

Security

Grade A, and why

scenario-planning scanned grade A with 0 findings against 26 rules in 11 categories — prompt injection, anti-refusal, data exfiltration, privilege escalation, supply chain, agent snooping, system-prompt leakage, SSRF and excessive agency — measured 8d ago.

A static scan of the body, not an audit. Every finding is printed with the line that produced it so you can judge whether it matters here. A mod is markdown that instructs an agent; that is exactly why what it instructs is worth reading.

Nothing flagged

None of the 26 patterns this scan looks for appear in this file: no shell pipes, no recursive deletes, no credential paths, no hidden text, no instruction-override or anti-refusal phrasing, no agent-config snooping. That is not a guarantee, it is the absence of the things that are checkable.

plugins/corporate-strategy/skills/scenario-planning/SKILL.md · 71 lines

How it starts

The opening of the file, as written. The whole thing — 71 lines — stays where its author put it; the contents beside it link to each section on GitHub.

Scenario planning

Forecasting produces one number and false confidence. Scenario planning produces a plan that survives being wrong, which is the realistic goal.

Separate what you know from what you are assuming

List the plan's assumptions explicitly, then sort them:

  • Predetermined — things that will happen regardless. Demographics, contracted commitments, technology already deployed. Plan around them; do not spend analysis on them.
  • Genuinely uncertain and load-bearing — the plan changes materially depending on how they resolve.

Almost every plan has two or three load-bearing uncertainties. Finding them is most of the value, and the exercise usually surfaces one nobody had articulated.

Build scenarios from the uncertainties, not from moods

The common failure is three scenarios named optimistic, base, and pessimistic — which is one scenario with the numbers scaled, and it teaches nothing.

Take the two most consequential uncertainties and build the quadrants. Each scenario should be internally coherent: if demand is high and supply is constrained, what else follows — pricing, competitor behavior, regulatory attention?

Give each a name that captures its logic. Names make scenarios usable in conversation, which is where they earn their keep.

Three or four scenarios. More cannot be held in mind; two collapses into best and worst.

Stress-test the plan against each

For every scenario: does the plan still work, what breaks first, and what would we wish we had done sooner?

The output is not a prediction. It is three things:

  • Robust moves — sensible in every scenario. Do these now, with confidence.
  • Contingent moves — right in some scenarios only. Prepare, do not commit.
  • Options — small investments that buy the right to act later. Deliberately underrated, because they look like indecision and are actually the cheapest way to handle uncertainty.

Early-warning indicators

For each scenario, name the observable signal that would show it is arriving — and specify it precisely enough to be checked. "Regulatory pressure increases" is not observable. "A second jurisdiction opens a consultation" is.

Read the full file on GitHub · 71 lines

Changes

What this file has done since we first saw it

Hashed on every crawl. A supply-chain change to an agent config is a question of when, not whether, so the history is kept rather than the latest state alone.

  1. 8d ago First seen · 71 lines · 78 tokens per session scan A 45b5fec715bf

Subscribe to this mod's changes

scenario-planning is a skill published in the GitHub repository cbrock84/headcount (1,300 stars, last pushed 4d ago), licensed MIT. It adds 78 tokens to every session and 683 once invoked, about $0.0004 per session on Opus 5. A static security scan graded it A with 0 findings. No closer match exists in the catalogue, so it is treated as the original; first seen 2026-08-30.

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