Getting it into your agent
One page per mod, every tool's command on it. A separate URL per tool would split the same page into five that compete with each other.
npx skills add ironyjk/strategy-frameworks --skill scenario-planninggit clone --depth 1 https://github.com/ironyjk/strategy-frameworksWrote this? Show the measurements
A badge with what this costs and how it scanned, read live from this page, so it follows the numbers instead of freezing them. Markdown for a README, HTML for a documentation site or a project page.
[](https://agentmods.dev/skills/ironyjk/strategy-frameworks/scenario-planning)<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/ironyjk/strategy-frameworks/scenario-planning"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/ironyjk/strategy-frameworks/scenario-planning/github.svg" alt="Measured on agentmods" height="20"></a>Or the 80×15 button, for a site that already has a row of RSS and ATOM ones. Only the verdict fits; the numbers stay here.
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/ironyjk/strategy-frameworks/scenario-planning"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/ironyjk/strategy-frameworks/scenario-planning.svg" alt="Reviewed on agentmods" width="80" height="20"></a>What it costs to keep this loaded
Counted locally with the o200k_base tokenizer, which is exact for GPT models; Claude uses its own tokenizer and its counts differ. Treat this as one consistent yardstick across the catalogue rather than a bill. Prices are per million input tokens.
| Model | Per session | Once invoked |
|---|---|---|
| Fable 5.1 | $0.00037 | $0.04230 |
| Opus 5 | $0.00018 | $0.02115 |
| Sonnet 5 | $0.00007 | $0.00846 |
| Haiku 4.5 | $0.00004 | $0.00423 |
Grade A, and why
scenario-planning scanned grade A with 0 findings against 26 rules in 11 categories — prompt injection, anti-refusal, data exfiltration, privilege escalation, supply chain, agent snooping, system-prompt leakage, SSRF and excessive agency — measured 8d ago.
A static scan of the body, not an audit. Every finding is printed with the line that produced it so you can judge whether it matters here. A mod is markdown that instructs an agent; that is exactly why what it instructs is worth reading.
Nothing flagged
None of the 26 patterns this scan looks for appear in this file: no shell pipes, no recursive deletes, no credential paths, no hidden text, no instruction-override or anti-refusal phrasing, no agent-config snooping. That is not a guarantee, it is the absence of the things that are checkable.
How it starts
The opening of the file, as written. The whole thing — 370 lines — stays where its author put it; the contents beside it link to each section on GitHub.
🔮 Scenario Planning (시나리오 플래닝)
Shell/Schwartz Method — Strategic Foresight Through Multiple Plausible Futures
Why Prediction Fails and Scenario Planning Works (왜 예측은 실패하고 시나리오 플래닝은 성공하는가)
The fundamental problem: Human beings are terrible at predicting the future. We anchor on current trends, ignore discontinuities, and confuse confidence with accuracy. Every economic forecast, technology prediction, and strategic plan that assumes a single future is fragile.
The Shell Oil case study: In the early 1970s, Royal Dutch Shell was the weakest of the "Seven Sisters" oil companies. Pierre Wack and his team in Shell's Group Planning division developed scenario planning as an alternative to traditional forecasting. While competitors used single-point oil price forecasts, Shell built multiple scenarios — including one where oil prices would spike dramatically.
When OPEC's 1973 embargo hit, Shell was the only major oil company that had already rehearsed this future mentally. They responded faster, repositioned assets earlier, and within two decades rose from last to first or second in profitability among the majors. They repeated this advantage during the 1979 oil crisis.
The key insight: Scenario planning does not predict the future. It prepares the mind to recognize and respond to multiple futures. Peter Schwartz (who later headed Shell's scenario planning group, succeeding Wack) called this "the gentle art of re-perceiving" — breaking mental models so that when change arrives, it feels like "memories of the future" rather than shock.
When to use scenario planning (시나리오 플래닝 적용 시점):
- Strategic decisions with long time horizons (3-10+ years)
- High uncertainty environments where key variables are unknowable
- Investment decisions that are expensive or impossible to reverse
- When the organization is stuck in groupthink or anchored on one view
- When "what if?" questions keep leadership awake at night
The Scenario Planning Process (시나리오 플래닝 프로세스) — 8 Steps
What this file has done since we first saw it
Hashed on every crawl. A supply-chain change to an agent config is a question of when, not whether, so the history is kept rather than the latest state alone.
- 8d ago First seen · 370 lines · 37 tokens per session scan A 145fc141578d
scenario-planning is a skill published in the GitHub repository ironyjk/strategy-frameworks (11 stars, last pushed 4mo ago), licensed MIT. It adds 37 tokens to every session and 4,230 once invoked, about $0.0002 per session on Opus 5. A static security scan graded it A with 0 findings. No closer match exists in the catalogue, so it is treated as the original; first seen 2026-08-30.
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