scenario-planning

scenario-planning is a skill for Claude Code from ironyjk/strategy-frameworks. It costs 37 tokens per session (4,230 once invoked), scanned A, original, MIT.

A strategy method that examines several plausible future situations instead of relying on one forecast.

In plain words
What is it for?
Use it to explore risks, opportunities, disruptions, and long-term strategic choices.
Why use it?
It helps organisations prepare for uncertainty and choose plans that remain useful when conditions change.

Skill for Claude Code

Written for Claude Code: user-invocable in frontmatter.

Part of the strategy-frameworks plugin — 27 skills shipped together

Good fit Use it to explore risks, opportunities, disruptions, and long-term strategic choices.

Compare 6 skills from other repositories ↓
Install with agentmods
npx agentmods add skills/ironyjk/strategy-frameworks/scenario-planning
Install

Getting it into your agent

One page per mod, every tool's command on it. A separate URL per tool would split the same page into five that compete with each other.

Any agent
npx skills add ironyjk/strategy-frameworks --skill scenario-planning
Clone the repo
git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/ironyjk/strategy-frameworks

Made for: Claude Code.

Or install strategy-frameworks, the plugin that ships this one along with the rest of its 27 skills.

Wrote this? Show the measurements

A badge with what this costs and how it scanned, read live from this page, so it follows the numbers instead of freezing them. Markdown for a README, HTML for a documentation site or a project page.

agentmods badge for scenario-planning

README.md
[![agentmods](https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/ironyjk/strategy-frameworks/scenario-planning/github.svg)](https://agentmods.dev/skills/ironyjk/strategy-frameworks/scenario-planning)
Your own site
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/ironyjk/strategy-frameworks/scenario-planning"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/ironyjk/strategy-frameworks/scenario-planning/github.svg" alt="Measured on agentmods" height="20"></a>

Or the 80×15 button, for a site that already has a row of RSS and ATOM ones. Only the verdict fits; the numbers stay here.

agentmods 80×15 button for scenario-planning

Your own site · 80×15
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/ironyjk/strategy-frameworks/scenario-planning"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/ironyjk/strategy-frameworks/scenario-planning.svg" alt="Reviewed on agentmods" width="80" height="20"></a>
Per session 37 Skills are progressive disclosure: only the name and description are preloaded; the body loads when the skill is used.
When invoked 4,230 The whole file, excluding the scripts and references it only reads on demand.
Security scan A 0 findings. A grade says what 26 rules found in the file — not that it is safe.
Origin original No closer match found in the catalogue.
Token cost

What it costs to keep this loaded

Counted locally with the o200k_base tokenizer, which is exact for GPT models; Claude uses its own tokenizer and its counts differ. Treat this as one consistent yardstick across the catalogue rather than a bill. Prices are per million input tokens.

ModelPer sessionOnce invoked
Fable 5.1 $0.00037 $0.04230
Opus 5 $0.00018 $0.02115
Sonnet 5 $0.00007 $0.00846
Haiku 4.5 $0.00004 $0.00423

Measured 8d ago against content hash 145fc141578d, method: parsed. Prices are Anthropic first-party input rates as of 2026-09-08, from the pricing page.

Security

Grade A, and why

scenario-planning scanned grade A with 0 findings against 26 rules in 11 categories — prompt injection, anti-refusal, data exfiltration, privilege escalation, supply chain, agent snooping, system-prompt leakage, SSRF and excessive agency — measured 8d ago.

A static scan of the body, not an audit. Every finding is printed with the line that produced it so you can judge whether it matters here. A mod is markdown that instructs an agent; that is exactly why what it instructs is worth reading.

Nothing flagged

None of the 26 patterns this scan looks for appear in this file: no shell pipes, no recursive deletes, no credential paths, no hidden text, no instruction-override or anti-refusal phrasing, no agent-config snooping. That is not a guarantee, it is the absence of the things that are checkable.

scenario-planning/SKILL.md · 370 lines

How it starts

The opening of the file, as written. The whole thing — 370 lines — stays where its author put it; the contents beside it link to each section on GitHub.

🔮 Scenario Planning (시나리오 플래닝)

Shell/Schwartz Method — Strategic Foresight Through Multiple Plausible Futures


Why Prediction Fails and Scenario Planning Works (왜 예측은 실패하고 시나리오 플래닝은 성공하는가)

The fundamental problem: Human beings are terrible at predicting the future. We anchor on current trends, ignore discontinuities, and confuse confidence with accuracy. Every economic forecast, technology prediction, and strategic plan that assumes a single future is fragile.

The Shell Oil case study: In the early 1970s, Royal Dutch Shell was the weakest of the "Seven Sisters" oil companies. Pierre Wack and his team in Shell's Group Planning division developed scenario planning as an alternative to traditional forecasting. While competitors used single-point oil price forecasts, Shell built multiple scenarios — including one where oil prices would spike dramatically.

When OPEC's 1973 embargo hit, Shell was the only major oil company that had already rehearsed this future mentally. They responded faster, repositioned assets earlier, and within two decades rose from last to first or second in profitability among the majors. They repeated this advantage during the 1979 oil crisis.

The key insight: Scenario planning does not predict the future. It prepares the mind to recognize and respond to multiple futures. Peter Schwartz (who later headed Shell's scenario planning group, succeeding Wack) called this "the gentle art of re-perceiving" — breaking mental models so that when change arrives, it feels like "memories of the future" rather than shock.

When to use scenario planning (시나리오 플래닝 적용 시점):

  • Strategic decisions with long time horizons (3-10+ years)
  • High uncertainty environments where key variables are unknowable
  • Investment decisions that are expensive or impossible to reverse
  • When the organization is stuck in groupthink or anchored on one view
  • When "what if?" questions keep leadership awake at night

The Scenario Planning Process (시나리오 플래닝 프로세스) — 8 Steps

Read the full file on GitHub · 370 lines

Changes

What this file has done since we first saw it

Hashed on every crawl. A supply-chain change to an agent config is a question of when, not whether, so the history is kept rather than the latest state alone.

  1. 8d ago First seen · 370 lines · 37 tokens per session scan A 145fc141578d

Subscribe to this mod's changes

scenario-planning is a skill published in the GitHub repository ironyjk/strategy-frameworks (11 stars, last pushed 4mo ago), licensed MIT. It adds 37 tokens to every session and 4,230 once invoked, about $0.0002 per session on Opus 5. A static security scan graded it A with 0 findings. No closer match exists in the catalogue, so it is treated as the original; first seen 2026-08-30.

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