write-economics-conclusion

Write an Economics Conclusion

Create the clean snapshot a reader should carry away from the paper: what the paper established, why it matters, and where the claim stops. Synthesize rather than repeat. Treat every extension beyond the results—mechanism, external validity, policy, and future work—as evidence-dependent.

Load the required knowledge

Before drafting, rewriting, or auditing, read all four references:

1. references/evidence-protocol.md — manuscript reading, evidence ledger, causal language, conflicts, and missing information.
2. references/conclusion-knowledge.md — the complete guide-derived principles, rationales, conditions, and anti-patterns.
3. references/composition-and-length.md — module selection, natural order, transitions, paper-type branches, and elastic length.
4. references/quality-and-sources.md — final audit, scoring rules, Top Five calibration, and provenance.

These references are mandatory. Follow the target journal and any separate Discussion-section convention before applying default length guidance.

Non-negotiable rules

• Base the conclusion on claims delivered by the manuscript body, not merely promised in the introduction.
• Never add a result, coefficient, mechanism, limitation, citation, counterfactual, future project, or policy claim that the supplied material does not support.
• Distinguish identified mechanisms, model-implied mechanisms, evidence consistent with a channel, suggestive evidence, and author speculation.
• Preserve mechanism strength exactly. If the source is only consistent with, supportive, or suggestive, do not write principal/main channel, drives, explains, accounts for, operates through, or a causal because unless separately supported.
• Map every explanatory clause, appositive, modifier, adjective, and comparison—not only the sentence's main result. A correct main clause does not license an unsupported where, because, especially when, or reflecting explanation.
• Match causal language to the design and external-validity language to the studied population, period, and institution.
• Use only the few numbers needed to preserve economic magnitude or a policy tradeoff; verify every component.
• Treat a number's denominator, baseline, comparison, and normalization as separate facts. Never infer of baseline or another denominator from nearby context.
• Preserve every uncertainty operator on a null result. No detectable effect may not become no effect, unchanged, unaffected, without reducing/eroding/harming, preserved, or did not harm; every restatement must carry its own detection and proxy qualifications.
• Treat low-cost, large, substantial, modest, meaningful, efficient, and similar evaluations as factual comparisons. Use them only with a reported benchmark or explicit source characterization.
• Apply a closed-world paraphrase rule: a smoother expression is eligible only if the source entails it without adding scope, causal force, mechanism status, measurement meaning, evaluation, or centrality.
• Do not convert a robustness exercise into a contribution or a caveat into proof that the concern is resolved.
• Keep the formal conclusion in English by default. Use the user's language for necessary questions or risk notes.
• Do not modify the source manuscript unless explicitly asked.