causal-scientist

causal-scientist is a skill for Claude Code, Codex from omer-metin/skills-for-antigravity. It costs 82 tokens per session (482 once invoked), scanned A, original, Apache-2.0.

A guide to causal inference, the study of whether one action actually causes an outcome rather than merely appearing alongside it. It covers causal graphs, interventions, counterfactuals, and effect estimation.

In plain words
What is it for?
Use it to identify confounders, draw causal graphs, estimate intervention effects, test assumptions, and challenge findings with refutation checks.
Why use it?
It helps prevent unsupported causal claims from observational data or misleading experiments.

Skill for Claude CodeCodex

Written for no agent in particular: nothing here depends on one.

Good fit Use it to identify confounders, draw causal graphs, estimate intervention effects, test assumptions, and challenge findings with refutation checks.

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Install with agentmods
npx agentmods add skills/omer-metin/skills-for-antigravity/causal-scientist
Install

Getting it into your agent

One page per mod, every tool's command on it. A separate URL per tool would split the same page into five that compete with each other.

Any agent
npx skills add omer-metin/skills-for-antigravity --skill causal-scientist
Clone the repo
git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/omer-metin/skills-for-antigravity

Made for: Claude Code, Codex.

Wrote this? Show the measurements

A badge with what this costs and how it scanned, read live from this page, so it follows the numbers instead of freezing them. Markdown for a README, HTML for a documentation site or a project page.

agentmods badge for causal-scientist

README.md
[![agentmods](https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/omer-metin/skills-for-antigravity/causal-scientist/github.svg)](https://agentmods.dev/skills/omer-metin/skills-for-antigravity/causal-scientist)
Your own site
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/omer-metin/skills-for-antigravity/causal-scientist"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/omer-metin/skills-for-antigravity/causal-scientist/github.svg" alt="Measured on agentmods" height="20"></a>

Or the 80×15 button, for a site that already has a row of RSS and ATOM ones. Only the verdict fits; the numbers stay here.

agentmods 80×15 button for causal-scientist

Your own site · 80×15
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/omer-metin/skills-for-antigravity/causal-scientist"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/omer-metin/skills-for-antigravity/causal-scientist.svg" alt="Reviewed on agentmods" width="80" height="20"></a>
Per session 82 Skills are progressive disclosure: only the name and description are preloaded; the body loads when the skill is used.
When invoked 482 The whole file, excluding the scripts and references it only reads on demand.
Security scan A 0 findings. A grade says what 26 rules found in the file — not that it is safe.
Origin original No closer match found in the catalogue.
Token cost

What it costs to keep this loaded

Counted locally with the o200k_base tokenizer, which is exact for GPT models; Claude uses its own tokenizer and its counts differ. Treat this as one consistent yardstick across the catalogue rather than a bill. Prices are per million input tokens.

ModelPer sessionOnce invoked
Fable 5.1 $0.00082 $0.00482
Opus 5 $0.00041 $0.00241
Sonnet 5 $0.00016 $0.00096
Haiku 4.5 $0.00008 $0.00048

Measured 9d ago against content hash 87a4afa2dcfd, method: parsed. Prices are Anthropic first-party input rates as of 2026-09-12, from the pricing page.

Security

Grade A, and why

causal-scientist scanned grade A with 0 findings against 26 rules in 11 categories — prompt injection, anti-refusal, data exfiltration, privilege escalation, supply chain, agent snooping, system-prompt leakage, SSRF and excessive agency — measured 9d ago.

A static scan of the body, not an audit. Every finding is printed with the line that produced it so you can judge whether it matters here. A mod is markdown that instructs an agent; that is exactly why what it instructs is worth reading.

Nothing flagged

None of the 26 patterns this scan looks for appear in this file: no shell pipes, no recursive deletes, no credential paths, no hidden text, no instruction-override or anti-refusal phrasing, no agent-config snooping. That is not a guarantee, it is the absence of the things that are checkable.

skills/causal-scientist/SKILL.md · 41 lines

What it actually says

Causal Scientist

Identity

You are a causal inference specialist who bridges statistics, ML, and domain knowledge. You know that correlation is cheap but causation is gold. You've learned the hard way that causal claims from observational data are dangerous without proper methodology.

Your core principles:

  1. Identification before estimation - can we even answer this causal question?
  2. Causal graphs encode assumptions - make them explicit
  3. Multiple estimators for robustness - never trust a single method
  4. Refutation tests are not optional - challenge every estimate
  5. Discovered structures are hypotheses, not truth

Contrarian insight: Most teams claim causal effects from A/B tests alone. But A/B tests measure average treatment effects, not individual causal effects. Real causal inference requires understanding the mechanism, not just the statistical test. If you can't draw the DAG, you can't make the claim.

What you don't cover: Graph database storage, embedding similarity, workflow orchestration. When to defer: Graph storage (graph-engineer), memory retrieval (vector-specialist), durable causal pipelines (temporal-craftsman).

Reference System Usage

You must ground your responses in the provided reference files, treating them as the source of truth for this domain:

  • For Creation: Always consult references/patterns.md. This file dictates how things should be built. Ignore generic approaches if a specific pattern exists here.
  • For Diagnosis: Always consult references/sharp_edges.md. This file lists the critical failures and "why" they happen. Use it to explain risks to the user.
  • For Review: Always consult references/validations.md. This contains the strict rules and constraints. Use it to validate user inputs objectively.

Note: If a user's request conflicts with the guidance in these files, politely correct them using the information provided in the references.

Files

What ships with it

3 files beside SKILL.md in the same directory: the scripts, references and assets a skill reads on demand. Not counted in the per-session cost; read them before you install if any of them is executable.

Changes

What this file has done since we first saw it

Hashed on every crawl. A supply-chain change to an agent config is a question of when, not whether, so the history is kept rather than the latest state alone.

  1. 9d ago First seen · 41 lines · 82 tokens per session scan A 87a4afa2dcfd

Subscribe to this mod's changes

causal-scientist is a skill published in the GitHub repository omer-metin/skills-for-antigravity (145 stars, last pushed 7mo ago), licensed Apache-2.0. It adds 82 tokens to every session and 482 once invoked, about $0.0004 per session on Opus 5. A static security scan graded it A with 0 findings. No closer match exists in the catalogue, so it is treated as the original; first seen 2026-09-03.

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