think-interval-calibration-check

think-interval-calibration-check is a skill for Claude Code from product-on-purpose/thinking-framework-skills. It costs 127 tokens per session (2,312 once invoked), scanned A, original, Apache-2.0.

A check on whether a stated uncertainty range and confidence percentage are realistic. For example, it tests whether a claim such as “two to four weeks, 90% sure” matches the person’s actual record of being right.

In plain words
What is it for?
Use it before relying on estimates in schedules, risk assessments, expected-value calculations, or other consequential decisions.
Why use it?
People often give ranges that are too narrow and confidence numbers that do not match reality. Checking past outcomes helps expose and correct overconfidence.

Skill for Claude Code

Written for Claude Code: shipped in a Claude Code plugin.

Part of the thinking-framework-skills plugin — 68 skills, 10 commands, 1 agent shipped together

Good fit Use it before relying on estimates in schedules, risk assessments, expected-value calculations, or other consequential decisions.

Compare 6 skills from other repositories ↓
Install with agentmods
npx agentmods add skills/product-on-purpose/thinking-framework-skills/think-interval-calibration-check
Install

Getting it into your agent

One page per mod, every tool's command on it. A separate URL per tool would split the same page into five that compete with each other.

Any agent
npx skills add product-on-purpose/thinking-framework-skills --skill think-interval-calibration-check
Clone the repo
git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/product-on-purpose/thinking-framework-skills

Made for: Claude Code.

Or install thinking-framework-skills, the plugin that ships this one along with the rest of its 68 skills, 10 commands, 1 agent.

Wrote this? Show the measurements

A badge with what this costs and how it scanned, read live from this page, so it follows the numbers instead of freezing them. Markdown for a README, HTML for a documentation site or a project page.

agentmods badge for think-interval-calibration-check

README.md
[![agentmods](https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/product-on-purpose/thinking-framework-skills/think-interval-calibration-check/github.svg)](https://agentmods.dev/skills/product-on-purpose/thinking-framework-skills/think-interval-calibration-check)
Your own site
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/product-on-purpose/thinking-framework-skills/think-interval-calibration-check"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/product-on-purpose/thinking-framework-skills/think-interval-calibration-check/github.svg" alt="Measured on agentmods" height="20"></a>

Or the 80×15 button, for a site that already has a row of RSS and ATOM ones. Only the verdict fits; the numbers stay here.

agentmods 80×15 button for think-interval-calibration-check

Your own site · 80×15
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/product-on-purpose/thinking-framework-skills/think-interval-calibration-check"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/product-on-purpose/thinking-framework-skills/think-interval-calibration-check.svg" alt="Reviewed on agentmods" width="80" height="20"></a>
Per session 127 Skills are progressive disclosure: only the name and description are preloaded; the body loads when the skill is used.
When invoked 2,312 The whole file, excluding the scripts and references it only reads on demand.
Security scan A 0 findings. A grade says what 26 rules found in the file — not that it is safe.
Origin original No closer match found in the catalogue.
Token cost

What it costs to keep this loaded

Counted locally with the o200k_base tokenizer, which is exact for GPT models; Claude uses its own tokenizer and its counts differ. Treat this as one consistent yardstick across the catalogue rather than a bill. Prices are per million input tokens.

ModelPer sessionOnce invoked
Fable 5.1 $0.00127 $0.02312
Opus 5 $0.00063 $0.01156
Sonnet 5 $0.00025 $0.00462
Haiku 4.5 $0.00013 $0.00231

Measured 11d ago against content hash 277ecc209748, method: parsed. Prices are Anthropic first-party input rates as of 2026-09-11, from the pricing page.

Security

Grade A, and why

think-interval-calibration-check scanned grade A with 0 findings against 26 rules in 11 categories — prompt injection, anti-refusal, data exfiltration, privilege escalation, supply chain, agent snooping, system-prompt leakage, SSRF and excessive agency — measured 11d ago.

A static scan of the body, not an audit. Every finding is printed with the line that produced it so you can judge whether it matters here. A mod is markdown that instructs an agent; that is exactly why what it instructs is worth reading.

Nothing flagged

None of the 26 patterns this scan looks for appear in this file: no shell pipes, no recursive deletes, no credential paths, no hidden text, no instruction-override or anti-refusal phrasing, no agent-config snooping. That is not a guarantee, it is the absence of the things that are checkable.

skills/think-interval-calibration-check/SKILL.md · 69 lines

How it starts

The opening of the file, as written. The whole thing — 69 lines — stays where its author put it; the contents beside it link to each section on GitHub.

Interval Calibration Check

People state uncertainty as intervals - "two to four weeks, 90 percent sure" - and those intervals are reliably too narrow. Overprecision is the most robust form of overconfidence: stated 90 percent intervals contain the true value far less than 90 percent of the time, and subjective intervals are sometimes only a fraction as wide as the judge's own information would warrant. A stated "90" that historically hits 50 is not a confidence level, it is a habit of speech, and everything downstream that takes the number literally - an expected-value calculation, a risk model, a commitment - inherits the error. This method interrogates the WIDTH of a stated uncertainty: does your 90 mean 90? It runs two coupled moves that both operate on the width and never on the location of the estimate - an equivalent-bet indifference test at elicitation time, and hit-rate scoring against resolved outcomes - and emits a calibration scorecard. The durable move is not asking "how sure are you?" again. It is converting that question into a concrete bet, widening until the bet is genuinely a toss-up, and scoring the stated confidence against the truths that actually arrive.

When to Use

  • A consequential plan, forecast, or commitment rests on a stated interval or confidence number that has never been audited - the "90 percent sure we ship in Q3" plan, the cost range in a proposal, the confidence column in a decision journal or assumption ledger.
  • The same person or team makes repeated resolvable estimates, so a track record exists or can accumulate and the scored-feedback half has material to work with.
  • A method that consumes probability numbers at face value sits immediately downstream (an expected-value decision tree, a risk model) - calibrate the inputs before the arithmetic launders them.
  • The worry is that the stated confidence is too tight to trust (overprecision), not that the central number is in the wrong place.

Read the full file on GitHub · 69 lines

Files

What ships with it

5 files beside SKILL.md in the same directory: the scripts, references and assets a skill reads on demand. Not counted in the per-session cost; read them before you install if any of them is executable.

Changes

What this file has done since we first saw it

Hashed on every crawl. A supply-chain change to an agent config is a question of when, not whether, so the history is kept rather than the latest state alone.

  1. 11d ago First seen · 69 lines · 127 tokens per session scan A 277ecc209748

Subscribe to this mod's changes

think-interval-calibration-check is a skill published in the GitHub repository product-on-purpose/thinking-framework-skills (15 stars, last pushed today), licensed Apache-2.0. It adds 127 tokens to every session and 2,312 once invoked, about $0.0006 per session on Opus 5. A static security scan graded it A with 0 findings. No closer match exists in the catalogue, so it is treated as the original; first seen 2026-08-30.

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