polymarket-soccer-shock-ladder

polymarket-soccer-shock-ladder is a skill for Claude Code, Codex from SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk. It costs 78 tokens per session (2,907 once invoked), scanned A, original, MIT.

A Polymarket trading strategy for soccer markets during the 2026 World Cup. It places several limit-buy orders after a sharp in-match price drop, then sells filled orders at a fixed recovery target.

In plain words
What is it for?
For running pre-sized recovery orders from Simmer Pro shock signals on Polymarket. It supports dry runs by default and manages the laddered orders and exits.
Why use it?
It automates a plan for trying to benefit when a sudden price shock partly reverses. The strategy is not guaranteed to work and depends on spreads, fees, speed, and price recovery.

Skill for Claude CodeCodex

Which agent this was written for is unclear — built for openclaw. Also seen: positional $N argument; built for openclaw.

Good fit For running pre-sized recovery orders from Simmer Pro shock signals on Polymarket. It supports dry runs by default and manages the laddered orders and exits.

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Install with agentmods
npx agentmods add skills/spartanlabsxyz/simmer-sdk/polymarket-soccer-shock-ladder
Install

Getting it into your agent

One page per mod, every tool's command on it. A separate URL per tool would split the same page into five that compete with each other.

Any agent
npx skills add SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk --skill polymarket-soccer-shock-ladder
Clone the repo
git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk

Made for: Claude Code, Codex.

Wrote this? Show the measurements

A badge with what this costs and how it scanned, read live from this page, so it follows the numbers instead of freezing them. Markdown for a README, HTML for a documentation site or a project page.

agentmods badge for polymarket-soccer-shock-ladder

README.md
[![agentmods](https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/spartanlabsxyz/simmer-sdk/polymarket-soccer-shock-ladder/github.svg)](https://agentmods.dev/skills/spartanlabsxyz/simmer-sdk/polymarket-soccer-shock-ladder)
Your own site
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/spartanlabsxyz/simmer-sdk/polymarket-soccer-shock-ladder"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/spartanlabsxyz/simmer-sdk/polymarket-soccer-shock-ladder/github.svg" alt="Measured on agentmods" height="20"></a>

Or the 80×15 button, for a site that already has a row of RSS and ATOM ones. Only the verdict fits; the numbers stay here.

agentmods 80×15 button for polymarket-soccer-shock-ladder

Your own site · 80×15
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/spartanlabsxyz/simmer-sdk/polymarket-soccer-shock-ladder"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/spartanlabsxyz/simmer-sdk/polymarket-soccer-shock-ladder.svg" alt="Reviewed on agentmods" width="80" height="20"></a>
Per session 78 Skills are progressive disclosure: only the name and description are preloaded; the body loads when the skill is used.
When invoked 2,907 The whole file, excluding the scripts and references it only reads on demand.
Security scan A 1 finding. A grade says what 26 rules found in the file — not that it is safe. Third-party audits
  • NVIDIA SkillSpector warn 7 Sept 2026
SkillSpector: 4 findings, up to high

These are SkillSpector’s own severities. On a checked sample its high-severity flags on skills were ~96% false positives — a documented command, a public API, a “never do X” rule — so we show them as a caution to read, not a verdict. Why →

  • high YARA Match · line 119
    YARA rule matched a known malware signature (reverse shell, backdoor, ransomware, C2 framework, or info stealer).
    Fix: Remove the malware payload or compromised file entirely. Investigate how it entered the skill and audit all other artifacts for additional indicators of compromise.
  • medium Data Exfiltration · line 85
    Data is being sent to an external URL. This could be legitimate telemetry or data exfiltration. Manual review is recommended.
    Fix: Verify the destination URL is trusted and necessary. Remove or replace with documented APIs. Ensure no secrets, tokens, or PII are transmitted.
  • medium Data Exfiltration · line 85
    Data is being sent to an external URL. This could be legitimate telemetry or data exfiltration. Manual review is recommended.
    Fix: Verify the destination URL is trusted and necessary. Remove or replace with documented APIs. Ensure no secrets, tokens, or PII are transmitted.
  • medium Data Exfiltration · line 239
    Data is being sent to an external URL. This could be legitimate telemetry or data exfiltration. Manual review is recommended.
    Fix: Verify the destination URL is trusted and necessary. Remove or replace with documented APIs. Ensure no secrets, tokens, or PII are transmitted.
How audits are shown
Origin original No closer match found in the catalogue.
Token cost

What it costs to keep this loaded

Counted locally with the o200k_base tokenizer, which is exact for GPT models; Claude uses its own tokenizer and its counts differ. Treat this as one consistent yardstick across the catalogue rather than a bill. Prices are per million input tokens.

ModelPer sessionOnce invoked
Fable 5.1 $0.00078 $0.02907
Opus 5 $0.00039 $0.01453
Sonnet 5 $0.00016 $0.00581
Haiku 4.5 $0.00008 $0.00291

Measured 12d ago against content hash fe8f4cb8e058, method: parsed. Prices are Anthropic first-party input rates as of 2026-09-12, from the pricing page.

Security

Grade A, and why

polymarket-soccer-shock-ladder scanned grade A with 1 finding against 26 rules in 11 categories — prompt injection, anti-refusal, data exfiltration, privilege escalation, supply chain, agent snooping, system-prompt leakage, SSRF and excessive agency — measured 12d ago.

The scan reads SKILL.md. This mod also ships 4 executable files (shock_ladder_trader.py, shock_ladder.py, tests/test_shock_ladder_trader.py, …), listed below but not scanned — reading those needs a real analyzer, not pattern matching.

A static scan of the body, not an audit. Every finding is printed with the line that produced it so you can judge whether it matters here. A mod is markdown that instructs an agent; that is exactly why what it instructs is worth reading.

Makes network callslowCapability

Not a fault in itself. Listed so you know the mod talks to something, and to what.

curl -X PATCH https://api.simmer.markets/api/sdk/shock-ladder/config \
skills/polymarket-soccer-shock-ladder/SKILL.md · 254 lines

How it starts

The opening of the file, as written. The whole thing — 254 lines — stays where its author put it; the contents beside it link to each section on GitHub.

World Cup Shock Ladder

Fade sharp price shocks on Polymarket World Cup markets. When a market's price drops hard during a match, this skill places a laddered set of limit buys below the pre-shock price, betting on a partial recovery, then exits each fill at a fixed target.

The strategy follows @RohOnChain's published "Trade FIFA Like A Quant" framework. The heavy lifting (detecting the shock, classifying it, sizing the rungs from historical depth distributions) runs on Simmer's server in real time. This skill is the thin execution layer: it reads the pre-sized signal and works the orders.

🚨 Framework, not a guaranteed edge. Read DISCLAIMER.md before going live. Runs in dry-run by default. Edges depend on spreads, fees, latency, and whether shocks actually recover. Start in dry-run, then go live small.

Requires Simmer Pro. Shock signals are delivered over the Pro reactor stream. Upgrade at simmer.markets/dashboard if you hit a 402 on connect.

Polymarket only. The ladder is a CLOB limit-order strategy. $SIM (the LMSR venue) has no order book to rest bids on, so --venue sim is a plumbing smoke test only, not a real run.

How it works

A "shock" is a fast price drop on one outcome during an in-play match. Simmer's server watches every WC market's live order flow, detects the drop, and figures out how deep shocks like this one usually go (from its own accumulated history, bucketed by favoritism, order-book depth, match minute, and goal state). It emits a signal with the pre-shock price and the depth percentiles.

This skill turns that signal into Roan's ladder:

  1. Four limit BUY orders on the shocked outcome, priced at pre_price - depth for the 50th, 75th, 90th, and 95th depth percentiles. Deeper rungs only fill if the price keeps falling.
  2. Sizes weighted 10 / 20 / 30 / 40 percent of your per-shock stake (deeper rungs carry more, since bigger drops have more room to recover).
  3. As rungs fill, it places a SELL for each at the fill price plus a fixed recovery target (default 4 cents).
  4. Unfilled rungs are cancelled after a short TTL (default 60 seconds).

Read the full file on GitHub · 254 lines

Files

What ships with it

7 files beside SKILL.md in the same directory: the scripts, references and assets a skill reads on demand. Not counted in the per-session cost; read them before you install if any of them is executable.

Changes

What this file has done since we first saw it

Hashed on every crawl. A supply-chain change to an agent config is a question of when, not whether, so the history is kept rather than the latest state alone.

  1. 12d ago First seen · 254 lines · 78 tokens per session scan A fe8f4cb8e058

Subscribe to this mod's changes

polymarket-soccer-shock-ladder is a skill published in the GitHub repository SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk (48 stars, last pushed today), licensed MIT. It adds 78 tokens to every session and 2,907 once invoked, about $0.0004 per session on Opus 5. A static security scan graded it A with 1 finding (makes network calls). No closer match exists in the catalogue, so it is treated as the original; first seen 2026-08-30.