find-fade-setup

find-fade-setup is a skill for Claude Code from hmesutozsoy/oddsrail. It costs 45 tokens per session (479 once invoked), scanned A, original, MIT.

A procedure for finding prediction-market situations where a recent price move may reverse toward its earlier level.

In plain words
What is it for?
It is for screening markets, validating a mean-reversion signal, estimating costs, checking resolution rules, and calculating a position size.
Why use it?
It checks market liquidity, price history, order-book depth, trading costs, and settlement wording before treating a reversal as a trade.

Skill for Claude Code

Written for Claude Code: $ARGUMENTS substitution.

Part of the oddsrail plugin — 4 skills, 1 MCP server shipped together

Good fit It is for screening markets, validating a mean-reversion signal, estimating costs, checking resolution rules, and calculating a position size.

Compare 6 skills from other repositories ↓
Install with agentmods
npx agentmods add skills/hmesutozsoy/oddsrail/find-fade-setup
Install

Getting it into your agent

One page per mod, every tool's command on it. A separate URL per tool would split the same page into five that compete with each other.

Any agent
npx skills add hmesutozsoy/oddsrail --skill find-fade-setup
Clone the repo
git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/hmesutozsoy/oddsrail

Made for: Claude Code.

Or install oddsrail, the plugin that ships this one along with the rest of its 4 skills, 1 MCP server.

Wrote this? Show the measurements

A badge with what this costs and how it scanned, read live from this page, so it follows the numbers instead of freezing them. Markdown for a README, HTML for a documentation site or a project page.

agentmods badge for find-fade-setup

README.md
[![agentmods](https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/hmesutozsoy/oddsrail/find-fade-setup/github.svg)](https://agentmods.dev/skills/hmesutozsoy/oddsrail/find-fade-setup)
Your own site
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/hmesutozsoy/oddsrail/find-fade-setup"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/hmesutozsoy/oddsrail/find-fade-setup/github.svg" alt="Measured on agentmods" height="20"></a>

Or the 80×15 button, for a site that already has a row of RSS and ATOM ones. Only the verdict fits; the numbers stay here.

agentmods 80×15 button for find-fade-setup

Your own site · 80×15
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/hmesutozsoy/oddsrail/find-fade-setup"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/hmesutozsoy/oddsrail/find-fade-setup.svg" alt="Reviewed on agentmods" width="80" height="20"></a>
Per session 45 Skills are progressive disclosure: only the name and description are preloaded; the body loads when the skill is used.
When invoked 479 The whole file, excluding the scripts and references it only reads on demand.
Security scan A 0 findings. A grade says what 26 rules found in the file — not that it is safe.
Origin original No closer match found in the catalogue.
Token cost

What it costs to keep this loaded

Counted locally with the o200k_base tokenizer, which is exact for GPT models; Claude uses its own tokenizer and its counts differ. Treat this as one consistent yardstick across the catalogue rather than a bill. Prices are per million input tokens.

ModelPer sessionOnce invoked
Fable 5.1 $0.00045 $0.00479
Opus 5 $0.00023 $0.00239
Sonnet 5 $0.00009 $0.00096
Haiku 4.5 $0.00005 $0.00048

Measured 4d ago against content hash d3e2d684499e, method: parsed. Prices are Anthropic first-party input rates as of 2026-09-10, from the pricing page.

Security

Grade A, and why

find-fade-setup scanned grade A with 0 findings against 26 rules in 11 categories — prompt injection, anti-refusal, data exfiltration, privilege escalation, supply chain, agent snooping, system-prompt leakage, SSRF and excessive agency — measured 4d ago.

A static scan of the body, not an audit. Every finding is printed with the line that produced it so you can judge whether it matters here. A mod is markdown that instructs an agent; that is exactly why what it instructs is worth reading.

Nothing flagged

None of the 26 patterns this scan looks for appear in this file: no shell pipes, no recursive deletes, no credential paths, no hidden text, no instruction-override or anti-refusal phrasing, no agent-config snooping. That is not a guarantee, it is the absence of the things that are checkable.

skills/find-fade-setup/SKILL.md · 32 lines

What it actually says

find fade setup

Use the tools of the oddsrail MCP server (install: pip install oddsrail, then claude mcp add --transport stdio oddsrail -- oddsrail, or enable the oddsrail plugin). Prices are implied probabilities in (0,1). Trading tools are dry-run unless the operator has set ODDSRAIL_DRY_RUN=0; never assume an order was placed without checking the dry_run field of the result.

Find a fade setup on prediction markets related to: $ARGUMENTS.

Work in this order and stop if a step fails:

  1. find_markets('$ARGUMENTS') — pick liquid candidates (volume_24h > 10000).
  2. For each candidate, overshoot_signal(token_id) — you want fade_setup_active=true AND median_reversion_120s > 0.2. If median_reversion_120s is null, the series had no measurable history: treat that as no signal, not as a weak one.
  3. get_orderbook(token_id) — confirm the book is two-sided. bids/asks are already best-first here.
  4. quote_cost(venue, market_id, side, size) — the reversion must beat slippage + fees, not just the headline move. Most setups die here.
  5. resolution_criteria — a market that resolves ambiguously can strand the position regardless of price action.
  6. position_size(bankroll_usd=<bankroll_usd>, price, fair_value) where fair_value is the pre-jump price if you believe it fully reverts.
  7. check_order(venue, market_id, side, price, size, intent=<the operator's words>) — a 'block' ends it; read any 'caution' back to the operator.
  8. place_order(...) — dry-run first and read back the intent before setting ODDSRAIL_DRY_RUN=0.

Report the candidates you rejected and why; a rejected setup is a result.

Changes

What this file has done since we first saw it

Hashed on every crawl. A supply-chain change to an agent config is a question of when, not whether, so the history is kept rather than the latest state alone.

  1. 4d ago Changed · +2 lines d3e2d684499e
  2. 6d ago First seen · 30 lines · 45 tokens per session scan A 1e4af9dcfac8

Subscribe to this mod's changes

find-fade-setup is a skill published in the GitHub repository hmesutozsoy/oddsrail (0 stars, last pushed 2d ago), licensed MIT. It adds 45 tokens to every session and 479 once invoked, about $0.0002 per session on Opus 5. A static security scan graded it A with 0 findings. No closer match exists in the catalogue, so it is treated as the original; first seen 2026-09-04.

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