Getting it into your agent
One page per mod, every tool's command on it. A separate URL per tool would split the same page into five that compete with each other.
npx agentmods add skills/tupe12334/instinct/pre-mortemnpx skills add tupe12334/instinct --skill pre-mortemgit clone --depth 1 https://github.com/tupe12334/instinctWhat it costs to keep this loaded
Counted locally with the o200k_base tokenizer, which is exact for GPT models; Claude uses its own tokenizer and its counts differ. Treat this as one consistent yardstick across the catalogue rather than a bill. Prices are per million input tokens.
| Model | Per session | Once invoked |
|---|---|---|
| Fable 5 | $0.00023 | $0.02150 |
| Opus 5 | $0.00012 | $0.01075 |
| Sonnet 5 | $0.00005 | $0.00430 |
| Haiku 4.5 | $0.00002 | $0.00215 |
Grade A, and why
pre-mortem scanned grade A with 0 findings against 26 rules in 11 categories — prompt injection, anti-refusal, data exfiltration, privilege escalation, supply chain, agent snooping, system-prompt leakage, SSRF and excessive agency — measured yesterday.
A static scan of the body, not an audit. Every finding is printed with the line that produced it so you can judge whether it matters here. A mod is markdown that instructs an agent; that is exactly why what it instructs is worth reading.
Nothing flagged
None of the 26 patterns this scan looks for appear in this file: no shell pipes, no recursive deletes, no credential paths, no hidden text, no instruction-override or anti-refusal phrasing, no agent-config snooping. That is not a guarantee, it is the absence of the things that are checkable.
How it starts
The opening of the file, as written. The whole thing — 151 lines — stays where its author put it; the contents beside it link to each section on GitHub.
Pre-Mortem
Overview
A pre-mortem is a prospective risk technique developed by Gary Klein. Before a project launches, the team imagines it is some future date and the project has already failed — then works backward to explain why. This "prospective hindsight" surfaces risks that standard risk registers and optimism bias routinely suppress.
NOW ──────────────────────────────────────────► FUTURE
[Project [Imagined [Real
Kickoff] Failure Date] Launch]
│ │ │
│ Pre-Mortem │ │
│ runs HERE ◄────────┘ │
│ "It failed. Why?" │
│ │
└──── fixes applied ───────────────────►│
Unlike a risk register (which lists vague probabilities), a pre-mortem produces a ranked, narrative list of specific failure stories that teams can act on immediately.
Core Concepts
Prospective Hindsight
Psychologically, people generate more and better reasons for an outcome when they treat it as having already happened rather than as a possibility. Declaring "it failed" — not "it might fail" — unlocks this effect. The team switches from defending their plan to explaining a known outcome.
Individual Brainstorm Before Group Discussion
Group dynamics suppress minority views. Each participant writes their own failure narrative silently before any sharing. This prevents anchoring on the first idea voiced and ensures quieter team members contribute genuine concerns.
Failure Categories
Structure the brainstorm across four domains to avoid blind spots:
┌─────────────────┬──────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ CATEGORY │ EXAMPLES │
├─────────────────┼──────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ Execution │ missed deadlines, scope creep, key │
│ │ person leaves, quality shortcuts │
├─────────────────┼──────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ Assumptions │ market size wrong, customer need │
│ │ misunderstood, tech feasibility off │
├─────────────────┼──────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ External │ competitor moves, regulation change, │
│ │ economic shift, dependency failure │
├─────────────────┼──────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ Team/Process │ misaligned incentives, unclear ownership,│
│ │ communication breakdown, wrong metrics │
└─────────────────┴──────────────────────────────────────────┘
What this file has done since we first saw it
Hashed on every crawl. A supply-chain change to an agent config is a question of when, not whether, so the history is kept rather than the latest state alone.
- yesterday First seen · 151 lines · 23 tokens per session scan A 4576152a9cbd
pre-mortem is a skill published in the GitHub repository tupe12334/instinct (1 stars, last pushed 16d ago), licensed MIT. It adds 23 tokens to every session and 2,150 once invoked, about $0.0001 per session on Opus 5. A static security scan graded it A with 0 findings. No closer match exists in the catalogue, so it is treated as the original; first seen 2026-08-31.
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thinking-red-team
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thinking-scientific-method
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thinking-systems
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thinking-circle-of-competence
Use when a specific claim may lack grounding. Check evidence boundary, size wrongness cost, then answer, fetch, or abstain — never confabulate.