dissecting-factual-predictions

dissecting-factual-predictions is a skill for Claude Code, Codex from zjunlp/Mechanist. It costs 39 tokens per session (5,682 once invoked), scanned A, original, MIT.

A set of experiments for studying how autoregressive language models recall factual information. It uses model internals and controlled changes to test which layers or hidden states affect a prediction.

In plain words
What is it for?
Use it to run hidden-state patching, layer or sublayer knockouts, and other causal tests of factual recall. It supports experiments that compare the original prediction with the result after an intervention.
Why use it?
It helps investigate whether a model's factual answer depends on particular internal components, instead of treating the prediction as an unexplained result. The examples use GPT-2 and GPT-J with common Python machine-learning libraries.

Skill for Claude CodeCodex

Part of the mechanist plugin — 54 skills, 4 agents shipped together

Install

Getting it into your agent

One page per mod, every tool's command on it. A separate URL per tool would split the same page into five that compete with each other.

agentmods
npx agentmods add skills/zjunlp/mechanist/ablation
Any agent
npx skills add zjunlp/Mechanist --skill ablation
Clone the repo
git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/zjunlp/Mechanist

Made for: Claude Code, Codex.

Or install mechanist, the plugin that ships this one along with the rest of its 54 skills, 4 agents.

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Per session 39 Skills are progressive disclosure: only the name and description are preloaded; the body loads when the skill is used.
When invoked 5,682 The whole file, excluding the scripts and references it only reads on demand.
Security scan A 0 findings. Scan, not verified.
Origin original No closer match found in the catalogue.
Token cost

What it costs to keep this loaded

Counted locally with the o200k_base tokenizer, which is exact for GPT models; Claude uses its own tokenizer and its counts differ. Treat this as one consistent yardstick across the catalogue rather than a bill. Prices are per million input tokens.

ModelPer sessionOnce invoked
Fable 5 $0.00039 $0.05682
Opus 5 $0.00019 $0.02841
Sonnet 5 $0.00008 $0.01136
Haiku 4.5 $0.00004 $0.00568

Measured 5d ago against content hash 417d4a8aaa24, method: parsed. Prices are Anthropic first-party input rates as of 2026-08-30, from the pricing page.

Security

Grade A, and why

dissecting-factual-predictions scanned grade A with 0 findings against 26 rules in 11 categories — prompt injection, anti-refusal, data exfiltration, privilege escalation, supply chain, agent snooping, system-prompt leakage, SSRF and excessive agency — measured 5d ago.

The scan reads SKILL.md. This mod also ships 2 executable files (scripts/intervention_experiments.py, scripts/model_analysis.py), listed below but not scanned — reading those needs a real analyzer, not pattern matching.

A static scan of the body, not an audit. Every finding is printed with the line that produced it so you can judge whether it matters here. A mod is markdown that instructs an agent; that is exactly why what it instructs is worth reading.

Nothing flagged

None of the 26 patterns this scan looks for appear in this file: no shell pipes, no recursive deletes, no credential paths, no hidden text, no instruction-override or anti-refusal phrasing, no agent-config snooping. That is not a guarantee, it is the absence of the things that are checkable.

skills/mechanism-skills/causal-attribution/ablation/SKILL.md · 692 lines

How it starts

The opening of the file, as written. The whole thing — 692 lines — stays where its author put it; the contents beside it link to each section on GitHub.

Demo Scripts

scripts/intervention_experiments.py

#!/usr/bin/env python3
"""
Intervention Experiments for Factual Association Analysis

This script demonstrates intervention techniques including hidden state patching,
sublayer knockout, and causal analysis of factual recall in language models.

Requires: pip install torch transformers numpy matplotlib
"""

import torch
import torch.nn.functional as F
import numpy as np
from transformers import GPT2LMHeadModel, GPT2Tokenizer
from typing import List, Dict, Tuple, Optional, Callable
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
from dataclasses import dataclass


@dataclass
class InterventionResult:
    """Store results from intervention experiments."""
    original_prediction: str
    original_prob: float
    intervened_prediction: str
    intervened_prob: float
    layer: int
    intervention_type: str
    

class InterventionAnalyzer:
    """
    Performs intervention experiments on language models to analyze factual recall.
    """
    
    def __init__(self, model_name: str = "gpt2"):
        """Initialize the intervention analyzer."""
        self.device = torch.device("cuda" if torch.cuda.is_available() else "cpu")
        self.model = GPT2LMHeadModel.from_pretrained(model_name).to(self.device)
        self.tokenizer = GPT2Tokenizer.from_pretrained(model_name)
        self.model.eval()
        
        # Get model configuration
        self.n_layers = self.model.config.n_layer
        self.n_heads = self.model.config.n_head
        self.d_model = self.model.config.n_embd
        
        print(f"Loaded {model_name}: {self.n_layers} layers, {self.n_heads} heads, {self.d_model} dims")
        
    def get_predictions(self, text: str, top_k: int = 1) -> Tuple[List[str], List[float]]:
        """
        Get model predictions for the next token.
        
        Args:
            text: Input text
            top_k: Number of top predictions to return
            
        Returns:
            Tuple of (predicted tokens, probabilities)
        """
        inputs = self.tokenizer(text, return_tensors="pt").to(self.device)
        
        with torch.no_grad():
            outputs = self.model(**inputs)
            logits = outputs.logits[0, -1]
            probs = F.softmax(logits, dim=-1)
            top_probs, top_indices = torch.topk(probs, k=top_k)
            
        tokens = [self.tokenizer.decode([idx]) for idx in top_indices]
        return tokens, top_probs.cpu().numpy()
    
    def patch_hidden_states(self, 
                          source_text: str, 
                          target_text: str, 
                          layer_idx: int,
                          position: int = -1) -> InterventionResult:
        """
        Patch hidden states from source to target at a specific layer.
        
        Args:
            source_text: Text to extract hidden state from
            target_text: Text to inject hidden state into
            layer_idx: Layer at which to perform patching
            position: Token position to patch (-1 for last)
            
        Returns:
            InterventionResult with analysis
        """
        # Get original predictions
        orig_tokens, orig_probs = self.get_predictions(target_text)
        
        # Get source hidden states
        source_inputs = self.tokenizer(source_text, return_tensors="pt").to(self.device)
        with torch.no_grad():
            source_outputs = self.model(**source_inputs, output_hidden_states=True)
            source_hidden = source_outputs.hidden_states[layer_idx][0, position].unsqueeze(0).unsqueeze(0)
        
        # Prepare target with intervention
        target_inputs = self.tokenizer(target_text, return_tensors="pt").to(self.device)
        
        # Define intervention hook
        def patch_hook(module, input, output):
            if isinstance(output, tuple):
                hidden_states = output[0]
            else:
                hidden_states = output
            
            # Patch the hidden state at specified position
            hidden_states[0, position] = source_hidden[0, 0]
            
            if isinstance(output, tuple):
                return (hidden_states,) + output[1:]
            return hidden_states
        
        # Register hook and run with intervention
        if layer_idx == 0:
            handle = self.model.transformer.wte.register_forward_hook(patch_hook)
        else:
            handle = self.model.transformer.h[layer_idx-1].register_forward_hook(patch_hook)
        
        with torch.no_grad():
            intervened_outputs = self.model(**target_inputs)
            intervened_logits = intervened_outputs.logits[0, -1]
            intervened_probs = F.softmax(intervened_logits, dim=-1)
            top_prob, top_idx = torch.topk(intervened_probs, k=1)
        
        handle.remove()
        
        intervened_token = self.tokenizer.decode([top_idx[0]])
        
        return InterventionResult(
            original_prediction=orig_tokens[0],
            original_prob=orig_probs[0],
            intervened_prediction=intervened_token,
            intervened_prob=top_prob[0].cpu().item(),
            layer=layer_idx,
            intervention_type="hidden_state_patch"
        )
    
    def knockout_sublayer(self, 
                         text: str, 
                         layer_idx: int, 
                         sublayer: str = "attn") -> InterventionResult:
        """
        Knockout (zero out) a specific sublayer's contribution.
        
        Args:
            text: Input text
            layer_idx: Layer index
            sublayer: "attn" or "mlp"
            
        Returns:
            InterventionResult with analysis
        """
        # Get original predictions
        orig_tokens, orig_probs = self.get_predictions(text)
        
        inputs = self.tokenizer(text, return_tensors="pt").to(self.device)
        
        # Define knockout hook
        def knockout_hook(module, input, output):
            if isinstance(output, tuple):
                # Return zeros for the sublayer output
                zeros = torch.zeros_like(output[0])
                return (zeros,) + output[1:] if len(output) > 1 else zeros
            else:
                return torch.zeros_like(output)
        
        # Register hook on appropriate sublayer
        if sublayer == "attn":
            target_module = self.model.transformer.h[layer_idx].attn
        elif sublayer == "mlp":
            target_module = self.model.transformer.h[layer_idx].mlp
        else:
            raise ValueError(f"Unknown sublayer: {sublayer}")
        
        handle = target_module.register_forward_hook(knockout_hook)
        
        with torch.no_grad():
            knockout_outputs = self.model(**inputs)
            knockout_logits = knockout_outputs.logits[0, -1]
            knockout_probs = F.softmax(knockout_logits, dim=-1)
            top_prob, top_idx = torch.topk(knockout_probs, k=1)
        
        handle.remove()
        
        knockout_token = self.tokenizer.decode([top_idx[0]])
        
        return InterventionResult(
            original_prediction=orig_tokens[0],
            original_prob=orig_probs[0],
            intervened_prediction=knockout_token,
            intervened_prob=top_prob[0].cpu().item(),
            layer=layer_idx,
            intervention_type=f"{sublayer}_knockout"
        )
    
    def analyze_factual_flow(self, 
                           prompt: str, 
                           expected_answer: str) -> Dict:
        """
        Analyze how factual information flows through the network.
        
        Args:
            prompt: Question or prompt requiring factual knowledge
            expected_answer: Expected factual answer
            
        Returns:
            Dictionary with layer-wise analysis
        """
        results = {
            "prompt": prompt,
            "expected": expected_answer,
            "layer_analysis": []
        }
        
        # Get base prediction
        base_tokens, base_probs = self.get_predictions(prompt)
        results["base_prediction"] = base_tokens[0]
        results["base_confidence"] = base_probs[0]
        
        # Analyze each layer's contribution
        for layer_idx in range(self.n_layers):
            layer_info = {"layer": layer_idx}
            
            # Test attention knockout
            attn_result = self.knockout_sublayer(prompt, layer_idx, "attn")
            layer_info["attn_knockout_changes_prediction"] = (
                attn_result.intervened_prediction != base_tokens[0]
            )
            
            # Test MLP knockout
            mlp_result = self.knockout_sublayer(prompt, layer_idx, "mlp")
            layer_info["mlp_knockout_changes_prediction"] = (
                mlp_result.intervened_prediction != base_tokens[0]
            )
            
            # Calculate importance scores
            layer_info["attn_importance"] = abs(
                base_probs[0] - attn_result.intervened_prob
            )
            layer_info["mlp_importance"] = abs(
                base_probs[0] - mlp_result.intervened_prob
            )
            
            results["layer_analysis"].append(layer_info)
        
        return results
    
    def visualize_layer_importance(self, analysis_results: Dict):
        """
        Visualize the importance of different layers for factual prediction.
        
        Args:
            analysis_results: Results from analyze_factual_flow
        """
        layers = [item["layer"] for item in analysis_results["layer_analysis"]]
        attn_importance = [item["attn_importance"] for item in analysis_results["layer_analysis"]]
        mlp_importance = [item["mlp_importance"] for item in analysis_results["layer_analysis"]]
        
        fig, (ax1, ax2) = plt.subplots(2, 1, figsize=(12, 8))
        
        # Plot attention importance
        ax1.bar(layers, attn_importance, color='blue', alpha=0.7)
        ax1.set_xlabel('Layer')
        ax1.set_ylabel('Importance Score')
        ax1.set_title('Attention Sublayer Importance for Factual Prediction')
        ax1.grid(True, alpha=0.3)
        
        # Plot MLP importance
        ax2.bar(layers, mlp_importance, color='green', alpha=0.7)
        ax2.set_xlabel('Layer')
        ax2.set_ylabel('Importance Score')
        ax2.set_title('MLP Sublayer Importance for Factual Prediction')
        ax2.grid(True, alpha=0.3)
        
        plt.suptitle(f'Layer Analysis: "{analysis_results["prompt"]}"')
        plt.tight_layout()
        return fig


def run_intervention_experiments():
    """
    Run a series of intervention experiments to analyze factual recall.
    """
    print("Initializing Intervention Analyzer...")
    analyzer = InterventionAnalyzer("gpt2")
    
    # Test cases for factual associations
    test_cases = [
        ("The capital of France is", "Paris"),
        ("Water freezes at", "0"),
        ("The largest planet is", "Jupiter"),
    ]
    
    for prompt, expected in test_cases:
        print(f"\n{'='*60}")
        print(f"Analyzing: '{prompt}'")
        print(f"Expected: '{expected}'")
        print("-" * 60)
        
        # Get baseline prediction
        predictions, probs = analyzer.get_predictions(prompt, top_k=3)
        print(f"\nTop 3 predictions: {list(zip(predictions, probs))}")
        
        # Test hidden state patching
        print("\n--- Hidden State Patching Experiment ---")
        # Create a source that strongly predicts the expected answer
        source_text = f"The answer is definitely {expected}"
        for layer in [0, 6, 11]:  # Early, middle, late layers
            patch_result = analyzer.patch_hidden_states(
                source_text, prompt, layer
            )
            print(f"Layer {layer}: {patch_result.original_prediction} -> {patch_result.intervened_prediction}")
        
        # Test sublayer knockout
        print("\n--- Sublayer Knockout Experiment ---")
        critical_layers = []
        for layer in range(analyzer.n_layers):
            attn_ko = analyzer.knockout_sublayer(prompt, layer, "attn")
            mlp_ko = analyzer.knockout_sublayer(prompt, layer, "mlp")
            
            if attn_ko.intervened_prediction != predictions[0]:
                critical_layers.append(f"L{layer}-attn")
            if mlp_ko.intervened_prediction != predictions[0]:
                critical_layers.append(f"L{layer}-mlp")
        
        print(f"Critical sublayers (change prediction): {critical_layers[:5]}...")
        
        # Comprehensive factual flow analysis
        print("\n--- Factual Flow Analysis ---")
        flow_analysis = analyzer.analyze_factual_flow(prompt, expected)
        
        # Find most important layers
        layer_data = flow_analysis["layer_analysis"]
        most_important_attn = max(layer_data, key=lambda x: x["attn_importance"])
        most_important_mlp = max(layer_data, key=lambda x: x["mlp_importance"])
        
        print(f"Most important attention layer: {most_important_attn['layer']} "
              f"(importance: {most_important_attn['attn_importance']:.4f})")
        print(f"Most important MLP layer: {most_important_mlp['layer']} "
              f"(importance: {most_important_mlp['mlp_importance']:.4f})")
        
        # Visualize if matplotlib is available
        try:
            fig = analyzer.visualize_layer_importance(flow_analysis)
            # Save figure
            fig.savefig(f'layer_importance_{prompt[:20].replace(" ", "_")}.png')
            print(f"Visualization saved to layer_importance_{prompt[:20].replace(' ', '_')}.png")
            plt.close(fig)
        except:
            print("Visualization skipped (matplotlib issue)")


if __name__ == "__main__":
    print("Starting Intervention Experiments for Factual Association Analysis")
    print("=" * 60)
    
    # Check GPU availability
    if torch.cuda.is_available():
        print(f"GPU available: {torch.cuda.get_device_name(0)}")
    else:
        print("Running on CPU (GPU recommended)")
    
    # Run experiments
    run_intervention_experiments()
    
    print("\n" + "=" * 60)
    print("Experiments complete!")
    print("\nNote: For more detailed analysis with GPT2-xl or GPT-J,")
    print("use appropriate GPU resources (V100/A100) and adjust model name.")

Read the full file on GitHub · 692 lines

Files

What ships with it

3 files beside SKILL.md in the same directory: the scripts, references and assets a skill reads on demand. Not counted in the per-session cost; read them before you install if any of them is executable.

Changes

What this file has done since we first saw it

Hashed on every crawl. A supply-chain change to an agent config is a question of when, not whether, so the history is kept rather than the latest state alone.

  1. 5d ago First seen · 692 lines · 39 tokens per session scan A 417d4a8aaa24

Subscribe to this mod's changes

dissecting-factual-predictions is a skill published in the GitHub repository zjunlp/Mechanist (51 stars, last pushed 9d ago), licensed MIT. It adds 39 tokens to every session and 5,682 once invoked, about $0.0002 per session on Opus 5. A static security scan graded it A with 0 findings. No closer match exists in the catalogue, so it is treated as the original; first seen 2026-08-30.

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