alterlab-timesfm

TimesFM Forecasting

Overview

TimesFM (Time Series Foundation Model) is a pretrained decoder-only foundation model developed by Google Research for time-series forecasting. It works zero-shot — feed it any univariate time series and it returns point forecasts with calibrated quantile prediction intervals, no training required.

This skill wraps TimesFM for safe, agent-friendly local inference. It includes a mandatory preflight system checker that verifies RAM, GPU memory, and disk space before the model is ever loaded so the agent never crashes a user's machine.

Key numbers: TimesFM 2.5 uses 200M parameters (~800 MB on disk, ~1.5 GB in RAM on CPU, ~1 GB VRAM on GPU). The archived v1/v2 500M-parameter model needs ~32 GB RAM. Always run the system checker first.

When to Use This Skill

Use this skill when:

• Forecasting any univariate time series (sales, demand, sensor, vitals, price, weather)
• You need zero-shot forecasting without training a custom model
• You want probabilistic forecasts with calibrated prediction intervals (quantiles)
• You have time series of any length (the model handles 1–16,384 context points)
• You need to batch-forecast hundreds or thousands of series efficiently
• You want a foundation model approach instead of hand-tuning ARIMA/ETS parameters

Do not use this skill when:

• You need classical statistical models with coefficient interpretation → use statsmodels
• You need time series classification or clustering → use aeon
• You need multivariate vector autoregression or Granger causality → use statsmodels
• Your data is tabular (not temporal) → use scikit-learn

Note on Anomaly Detection: TimesFM does not have built-in anomaly detection, but you can use the quantile forecasts as prediction intervals — values outside the 80% CI (q10–q90) are statistically unusual. See the examples/anomaly-detection/ directory for a full example.

⚠️ Mandatory Preflight: System Requirements Check