Agent skills built from Algorithms for Decision Making (Kochenderfer, Wheeler & Wray). Expected utility, value of information, bandits, robustness, belief filtering and game theory, as SKILL.md files with a zero-dependency calculator.
romainsimon/skills-for-decision-making
Skill Claude CodeCodex needs its repo
Splits scarce time, budget or traffic across competing products, channels, campaigns or variants by treating them as a multi-armed bandit - Thompson sampling over beta posteriors, with optimism for anything not yet tried enough to judge. Use when deciding what to work on next, how to divide a marketing budget, which…
romainsimon/skills-for-decision-making
Skill Claude CodeCodex needs its repo
Turns a vague "what should we do about X" into a scored decision - explicit actions, an explicit unknown, an explicit prior, and one utility scale - then picks by maximum expected utility and checks the result for framing effects. Use when facing a choice between options under uncertainty, when a decision has stalled…
romainsimon/skills-for-decision-making
Skill Claude CodeCodex needs its repo
Turns past decisions into calibrated judgment - scoring old predictions against what happened, assigning credit for delayed results, and separating a bad decision from a good decision that lost. Use during a retrospective, postmortem, quarterly or monthly review, when reviewing decisions taken 30+ days ago, when…
romainsimon/skills-for-decision-making
Skill Claude CodeCodex needs its repo
Decides how far ahead to plan, what to discount future payoffs by, and which backlog items can be dropped without analysis - using receding-horizon planning, an explicit discount factor, and branch-and-bound pruning against the incumbent. Use when building a roadmap, prioritising a backlog, arguing about short-term…
romainsimon/skills-for-decision-making
Skill Claude CodeCodex needs its repo
Models what a competitor will do next and what happens if you respond - best response, equilibrium, and the difference between a rival who optimises perfectly and one who does not. Use before a price change or price war, when a competitor launches something, when deciding whether to match a rival's move, when…
romainsimon/skills-for-decision-making
Skill Claude CodeCodex needs its repo
Validates a plan before committing to it - checks whether the ranking survives the assumptions, finds the most likely way it fails, and makes the trade-offs explicit via a Pareto frontier instead of an invented single score. Use before a launch, price change, migration, infrastructure change or major commitment, when…
romainsimon/skills-for-decision-making
Skill Claude CodeCodex needs its repo
Separates signal from noise in metrics you cannot observe directly, updating a belief from evidence instead of reacting to the latest reading - Bayesian updates over competing explanations, and a filter that says whether this week's move is real. Use when a metric moves and someone wants to act, when diagnosing why…
romainsimon/skills-for-decision-making
Skill Claude CodeCodex needs its repo
Prices research, tests, surveys, dashboards and experiments before running them, by computing how much the result would raise expected utility - which is zero whenever no outcome would change the decision. Use when someone proposes an A/B test, user survey, market study, competitor analysis, analytics build…
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