predictive-alerts

predictive-alerts is a skill for Claude Code from reatlat/fullstory-claude-plugin. It costs 47 tokens per session (1,378 once invoked), scanned A, original, MIT.

A monitoring method that predicts when a measured value will cross a limit by analyzing its trend. It can warn about a likely problem before the limit is reached.

In plain words
What is it for?
Use it to watch conversion, errors, rage clicks, or another metric and set early warnings for a predicted threshold breach or a worsening trend.
Why use it?
Ordinary alerts report a problem after it happens. Trend-based alerts give you time to investigate or act before an error rate, conversion rate, or other metric reaches a critical level.

Skill for Claude Code

Written for Claude Code: shipped in a Claude Code plugin.

Part of the fullstory-claude-plugin plugin — 46 skills, 3 agents, 1 MCP server shipped together

Good fit Use it to watch conversion, errors, rage clicks, or another metric and set early warnings for a predicted threshold breach or a worsening trend.

Compare 6 skills from other repositories ↓
Install with agentmods
npx agentmods add skills/reatlat/fullstory-claude-plugin/predictive-alerts
Install

Getting it into your agent

One page per mod, every tool's command on it. A separate URL per tool would split the same page into five that compete with each other.

Any agent
npx skills add reatlat/fullstory-claude-plugin --skill predictive-alerts
Clone the repo
git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/reatlat/fullstory-claude-plugin

Made for: Claude Code.

Or install fullstory-claude-plugin, the plugin that ships this one along with the rest of its 46 skills, 3 agents, 1 MCP server.

Wrote this? Show the measurements

A badge with what this costs and how it scanned, read live from this page, so it follows the numbers instead of freezing them. Markdown for a README, HTML for a documentation site or a project page.

agentmods badge for predictive-alerts

README.md
[![agentmods](https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/reatlat/fullstory-claude-plugin/predictive-alerts/github.svg)](https://agentmods.dev/skills/reatlat/fullstory-claude-plugin/predictive-alerts)
Your own site
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/reatlat/fullstory-claude-plugin/predictive-alerts"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/reatlat/fullstory-claude-plugin/predictive-alerts/github.svg" alt="Measured on agentmods" height="20"></a>

Or the 80×15 button, for a site that already has a row of RSS and ATOM ones. Only the verdict fits; the numbers stay here.

agentmods 80×15 button for predictive-alerts

Your own site · 80×15
<a href="https://agentmods.dev/skills/reatlat/fullstory-claude-plugin/predictive-alerts"><img src="https://agentmods.dev/badge/skills/reatlat/fullstory-claude-plugin/predictive-alerts.svg" alt="Reviewed on agentmods" width="80" height="20"></a>
Per session 47 Skills are progressive disclosure: only the name and description are preloaded; the body loads when the skill is used.
When invoked 1,378 The whole file, excluding the scripts and references it only reads on demand.
Security scan A 0 findings. A grade says what 26 rules found in the file — not that it is safe. Third-party audits
  • NVIDIA SkillSpector pass 7 Sept 2026
How audits are shown
Origin original No closer match found in the catalogue.
Token cost

What it costs to keep this loaded

Counted locally with the o200k_base tokenizer, which is exact for GPT models; Claude uses its own tokenizer and its counts differ. Treat this as one consistent yardstick across the catalogue rather than a bill. Prices are per million input tokens.

ModelPer sessionOnce invoked
Fable 5.1 $0.00047 $0.01378
Opus 5 $0.00023 $0.00689
Sonnet 5 $0.00009 $0.00276
Haiku 4.5 $0.00005 $0.00138

Measured 10d ago against content hash fcf6e952c880, method: parsed. Prices are Anthropic first-party input rates as of 2026-09-10, from the pricing page.

Security

Grade A, and why

predictive-alerts scanned grade A with 0 findings against 26 rules in 11 categories — prompt injection, anti-refusal, data exfiltration, privilege escalation, supply chain, agent snooping, system-prompt leakage, SSRF and excessive agency — measured 10d ago.

A static scan of the body, not an audit. Every finding is printed with the line that produced it so you can judge whether it matters here. A mod is markdown that instructs an agent; that is exactly why what it instructs is worth reading.

Nothing flagged

None of the 26 patterns this scan looks for appear in this file: no shell pipes, no recursive deletes, no credential paths, no hidden text, no instruction-override or anti-refusal phrasing, no agent-config snooping. That is not a guarantee, it is the absence of the things that are checkable.

skills/predictive-alerts/SKILL.md · 146 lines

How it starts

The opening of the file, as written. The whole thing — 146 lines — stays where its author put it; the contents beside it link to each section on GitHub.

Predictive Alerts

Set up proactive alerts — warn the user before a metric crosses a critical threshold, not after.

When to Use

  • "Alert me if conversion is about to drop below 15%"
  • "Warn me if errors are trending toward our SLO limit"
  • "Tell me when rage clicks are on track to double this month"
  • "Set up a watch on the new checkout flow — alert if anything changes"
  • "What should I be worried about tomorrow?"

Mental Model

Reactive monitoring tells you what already happened. Predictive alerting tells you what's about to happen based on the trend.

If error rate is 0.8% today, 1.2% yesterday, and 1.6% the day before — you're on track to hit your 3% SLO limit in 3 days. Alert now, not when you breach it.

Workflow

Step 1: Define the alert

What metric, what threshold, what direction?

Alert: Checkout conversion drops below 15%
Current: 21%
Trend: Declining -0.5pp per week
Predicted threshold breach: ~12 weeks (if trend holds)
→ No immediate alert needed, but set a watch for <18% as early warning

Step 2: Analyze the trend

Build a trend metric and assess the trajectory:

fullstory:build_metric(query="checkout conversion rate", output_type="trend")
fullstory:compute_metric(metric_id, time_range="last_90_days")

Analyze the trend:

  • Direction: Up, down, or flat?
  • Velocity: How fast is it changing? (per day, per week)
  • Acceleration: Is the change speeding up or slowing down?
  • Volatility: How much does it bounce around? (noisy trends are harder to predict)

Step 3: Predict threshold breach

Simple linear projection:

Current value: 21%
Weekly change: -0.5pp
Threshold: 15%
Weeks to breach: (21 - 15) / 0.5 = 12 weeks

Caveat heavily: "This is a simple linear projection based on the last 4 weeks. Trends change. This is an early warning, not a forecast."

Step 4: Check for acceleration

Is the decline speeding up?

Last week: -0.3pp
This week: -0.5pp
Week before: -0.2pp
→ The decline is accelerating (from -0.2 to -0.5). If it continues accelerating, the breach could happen in 6-8 weeks, not 12.

Read the full file on GitHub · 146 lines

Changes

What this file has done since we first saw it

Hashed on every crawl. A supply-chain change to an agent config is a question of when, not whether, so the history is kept rather than the latest state alone.

  1. 10d ago First seen · 146 lines · 47 tokens per session scan A fcf6e952c880

Subscribe to this mod's changes

predictive-alerts is a skill published in the GitHub repository reatlat/fullstory-claude-plugin (62 stars, last pushed 28d ago), licensed MIT. It adds 47 tokens to every session and 1,378 once invoked, about $0.0002 per session on Opus 5. A static security scan graded it A with 0 findings. No closer match exists in the catalogue, so it is treated as the original; first seen 2026-08-30.